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  • Wu, YaoDepartment of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (author)

Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association around the globe

  • Article/chapterEnglish2022

Publisher, publication year, extent ...

  • Cell Press,2022
  • electronicrdacarrier

Numbers

  • LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:umu-193406
  • https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-193406URI
  • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2022.100225DOI

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  • Language:English
  • Summary in:English

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  • Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
  • Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype

Notes

  • Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We used location-specific quasi-Poisson regression models with an interaction term between the cross-basis term for mean temperature and quartiles of TV to obtain heat-mortality associations under each quartile of TV, and then pooled estimates at the country, regional, and global levels. Results show the increased risk in heat-related mortality with increments in TV, accounting for 0.70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.33 to 1.69), 1.34% (95% CI: −0.14 to 2.73), 1.99% (95% CI: 0.29–3.57), and 2.73% (95% CI: 0.76–4.50) of total deaths for Q1–Q4 (first quartile–fourth quartile) of TV. The modification effects of TV varied geographically. Central Europe had the highest attributable fractions (AFs), corresponding to 7.68% (95% CI: 5.25–9.89) of total deaths for Q4 of TV, while the lowest AFs were observed in North America, with the values for Q4 of 1.74% (95% CI: −0.09 to 3.39). TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health.

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  • Wen, BoDepartment of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (author)
  • Li, ShanshanDepartment of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (author)
  • Gasparrini, AntonioDepartment of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom (author)
  • Tong, ShiluShanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia (author)
  • Overcenco, AlaNational Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Moldova (author)
  • Urban, AlešInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic (author)
  • Schneider, AlexandraInstitute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München–German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany (author)
  • Entezari, AlirezaClimate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran (author)
  • Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana MariaDepartment of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland (author)
  • Zanobetti, AntonellaDepartment of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, MA, Boston, United States (author)
  • Analitis, AntonisDepartment of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece (author)
  • Zeka, ArianaInstitute for Environment, Health, and Societies, Brunel University London, UK, London, United Kingdom (author)
  • Tobias, AurelioInstitute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan (author)
  • Alahmad, BarrakDepartment of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, MA, Boston, United States (author)
  • Armstrong, BenDepartment of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom (author)
  • Forsberg, Bertil,professor,1956-Umeå universitet,Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa(Swepub:umu)befo0001 (author)
  • Íñiguez, CarmenDepartment of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain; CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain (author)
  • Ameling, CarolineNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands (author)
  • De la Cruz Valencia, CésarDepartment of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico (author)
  • Åström, Christofer,1983-Umeå universitet,Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa(Swepub:umu)chas0002 (author)
  • Houthuijs, DannyNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands (author)
  • Van Dung, DoDepartment of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam (author)
  • Royé, DominicCIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain (author)
  • Indermitte, EneInstitute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia (author)
  • Lavigne, EricSchool of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, ON, Ottawa, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, ON, Ottawa, Canada (author)
  • Mayvaneh, FatemehFaculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran (author)
  • Acquaotta, FiorellaDepartment of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy (author)
  • de'Donato, FrancescaDepartment of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy (author)
  • Sera, FrancescoDepartment of Statistics, Computer Science, and Applications “G. Parenti”, University of Florence, Florence, Italy (author)
  • Carrasco-Escobar, GabrielHealth Innovation Laboratory, Institute of Tropical Medicine “Alexander von Humboldt”, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States (author)
  • Kan, HaidongDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China (author)
  • Orru, HansInstitute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia (author)
  • Kim, HoGraduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea (author)
  • Holobaca, Iulian-HoriaFaculty of Geography, Babeş-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania (author)
  • Kyselý, JanInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic (author)
  • Madureira, JoanaEPIUnit – Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal; Environmental Health Department, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal (author)
  • Schwartz, JoelDepartment of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, MA, Boston, United States (author)
  • Katsouyanni, KleaDepartment of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, UK, London, United Kingdom (author)
  • Hurtado-Diaz, MagaliDepartment of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico (author)
  • Ragettli, Martina S.Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland (author)
  • Hashizume, MasahiroDepartment of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan (author)
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  • de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, MichelineDepartment of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil (author)
  • Scovronick, NoahGangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, GA, Atlanta, United States (author)
  • Michelozzi, PaolaDepartment of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy (author)
  • Goodman, PatrickTechnological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland (author)
  • Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo HilarioINSPER, São Paulo, Brazil (author)
  • Abrutzky, RosanaInstituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina (author)
  • Osorio, SamuelDepartment of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil (author)
  • Dang, Tran NgocDepartment of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam (author)
  • Colistro, ValentinaDepartment of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay (author)
  • Huber, VeronikaIBE-Chair of Epidemiology, Ludwig Maximilian University Munich, Munich, Germany; Department of Physical, Chemical, and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain (author)
  • Lee, WhanheeSchool of the Environment, Yale University, CT, New Haven, United States; Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea (author)
  • Seposo, XerxesSchool of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan (author)
  • Honda, YasushiCenter for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Tsukuba, Japan (author)
  • Bell, Michelle L.School of the Environment, Yale University, CT, New Haven, United States (author)
  • Guo, YumingDepartment of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (author)
  • Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, AustraliaDepartment of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom (creator_code:org_t)

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  • In:The Innovation: Cell Press3:22666-6758

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