Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study

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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19 : a three-stage modelling study

Wu, Yao (författare): Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia

Li, Shanshan (författare): Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia

Zhao, Qi (författare): Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China

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Wen, Bo (författare): Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia

Gasparrini, Antonio (författare): Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom

Tong, Shilu (författare): Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, QLD, Brisbane, Australia

Overcenco, Ala (författare): National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, Moldova

Urban, Aleš (författare): Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic

Schneider, Alexandra (författare): Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany

Entezari, Alireza (författare): Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran

Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria (författare): Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

Zanobetti, Antonella (författare): Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, MA, Boston, United States

Analitis, Antonis (författare): Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece

Zeka, Ariana (författare): Institute for Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, UK, London, United Kingdom

Tobias, Aurelio (författare): Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan

Nunes, Baltazar (författare): Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

Alahmad, Barrak (författare): Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, MA, Boston, United States

Armstrong, Ben (författare): Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom

Forsberg, Bertil, professor, 1956- (författare): Umeå universitet,Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa

Pan, Shih-Chun (författare): NationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan

Íñiguez, Carmen (författare): Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain

Ameling, Caroline (författare): National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands

De la Cruz Valencia, César (författare): Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico

Åström, Christofer, 1983- (författare): Umeå universitet,Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa

Houthuijs, Danny (författare): National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands

Van Dung, Do (författare): Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam

Royé, Dominic (författare): CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain

Indermitte, Ene (författare): Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia

Lavigne, Eric (författare): School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, ON, Ottawa, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, ON, Ottawa, Canada

Mayvaneh, Fatemeh (författare): Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran

Acquaotta, Fiorella (författare): Department of Earth Sciences, University of Torino, Turin, Italy

de'Donato, Francesca (författare): Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy

Rao, Shilpa (författare): Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway

Sera, Francesco (författare): Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications “G Parenti”, University of Florence, Florence, Italy

Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel (författare): Health Innovation Lab, Institute of Tropical Medicine “Alexander von Humboldt”, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, CA, La Jolla, United States

Kan, Haidong (författare): Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

Orru, Hans (författare): Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia

Kim, Ho (författare): Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea

Holobaca, Iulian-Horia (författare): Faculty of Geography, Babeş-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania

Kyselý, Jan (författare): Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic

Madureira, Joana (författare): Environmental Health Department, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; EPIUnit—Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal

Schwartz, Joel (författare): Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, MA, Boston, United States

Jaakkola, Jouni J K (författare): Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland

Katsouyanni, Klea (författare): Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, UK, London, United Kingdom

Hurtado Diaz, Magali (författare): Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico

Ragettli, Martina S (författare): Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland

Hashizume, Masahiro (författare): Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Pascal, Mathilde (författare): Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France

de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline (författare): Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

Ortega, Nicolás Valdés (författare): Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile

Ryti, Niilo (författare): Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland

Scovronick, Noah (författare): Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, GA, Atlanta, United States

Michelozzi, Paola (författare): Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy

Correa, Patricia Matus (författare): Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile

Goodman, Patrick (författare): School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland

Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario (författare): INSPER, São Paulo, Brazil

Abrutzky, Rosana (författare): Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Osorio, Samuel (författare): Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil

Dang, Tran Ngoc (författare): Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam

Colistro, Valentina (författare): Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay

Huber, Veronika (författare): IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain

Lee, Whanhee (författare): School of the Environment, Yale University, CT, New Haven, United States; Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea

Seposo, Xerxes (författare): School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan

Honda, Yasushi (författare): Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

Guo, Yue Leon (författare): NationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

Bell, Michelle L (författare): School of the Environment, Yale University, CT, New Haven, United States

Guo, Yuming (författare): Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia

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Elsevier, 2022
2022
Engelska.
Ingår i: The Lancet Planetary Health. - : Elsevier. - 2542-5196. ; 6:5, s. e410-e421

Relaterad länk:: https://doi.org/10.1...; visa fler...; https://umu.diva-por... (primary) (Raw object); https://urn.kb.se/re...; https://doi.org/10.1...; visa färre...

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Background: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000–19.Methods: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000–19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades.Findings: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901–2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2–4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7–5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3–10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2–5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9–4·6).Interpretation: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. Funding: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

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Av författaren/redakt...: Wu, Yao; Li, Shanshan; Zhao, Qi; Wen, Bo; Gasparrini, Anto ...; Tong, Shilu; visa fler...; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš; Schneider, Alexa ...; Entezari, Alirez ...; Vicedo-Cabrera, ...; Zanobetti, Anton ...; Analitis, Antoni ...; Zeka, Ariana; Tobias, Aurelio; Nunes, Baltazar; Alahmad, Barrak; Armstrong, Ben; Forsberg, Bertil ...; Pan, Shih-Chun; Íñiguez, Carmen; Ameling, Carolin ...; De la Cruz Valen ...; Åström, Christof ...; Houthuijs, Danny; Van Dung, Do; Royé, Dominic; Indermitte, Ene; Lavigne, Eric; Mayvaneh, Fateme ...; Acquaotta, Fiore ...; de'Donato, Franc ...; Rao, Shilpa; Sera, Francesco; Carrasco-Escobar ...; Kan, Haidong; Orru, Hans; Kim, Ho; Holobaca, Iulian ...; Kyselý, Jan; Madureira, Joana; Schwartz, Joel; Jaakkola, Jouni ...; Katsouyanni, Kle ...; Hurtado Diaz, Ma ...; Ragettli, Martin ...; Hashizume, Masah ...; Pascal, Mathilde; de Sousa Zanotti ...; Ortega, Nicolás ...; Ryti, Niilo; Scovronick, Noah; Michelozzi, Paol ...; Correa, Patricia ...; Goodman, Patrick; Nascimento Saldi ...; Abrutzky, Rosana; Osorio, Samuel; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Colistro, Valent ...; Huber, Veronika; Lee, Whanhee; Seposo, Xerxes; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue Leon; Bell, Michelle L; Guo, Yuming; visa färre...

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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19 : a three-stage modelling study

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