Widespread synchrony in phosphorus concentrations in northern lakes linked to winter temperature and summer precipitation

Isles, Peter D. F.Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation, VT, Montpelier, United States (author)

In recent years, unexplained declines in lake total phosphorus (TP) concentrations have been observed at northern latitudes (> 42°N latitude) where most of the world's lakes are found. We compiled data from 389 lakes in Fennoscandia and eastern North America to investigate the effects of climate on lake TP concentrations. Synchrony in year-to-year variability is an indicator of climatic influences on lake TP, because other major influences on nutrients (e.g., land use change) are not likely to affect all lakes in the same year. We identified significant synchrony in lake TP both within and among different geographic regions. Using a bootstrapped random forest analysis, we identified winter temperature as the most important factor controlling annual TP, followed by summer precipitation. In Fennoscandia, TP was negatively correlated with the winter East Atlantic Pattern, which is associated with regionally warmer winters. Our results suggest that, in the absence of other overriding factors, lake TP and productivity may decline with continued winter warming in northern lakes.

Creed, Irena F.Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, ON, Toronto, Canada (author)
Hessen, Dag O.Department of Biosciences and Center for Biogeochemistry of the Anthropocene, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway (author)
Kortelainen, PirkkoFinnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland (author)
Paterson, MichaelIISD-Experimental Lakes Area, Winnipeg, Canada (author)
Pomati, FrancescoDepartment of Aquatic Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Sciences and Technology (Eawag), Dübendorf, Switzerland (author)
Rusak, James A.Dorset Environmental Science Centre, Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks, ON, Dorset, Canada (author)
Vuorenmaa, JussiFinnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland (author)
Bergström, Ann-Kristin,1968-Umeå universitet,Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap(Swepub:umu)anbe0007 (author)
Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation, VT, Montpelier, United StatesDepartment of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, ON, Toronto, Canada (creator_code:org_t)

In:Limnology and Oceanography Letters: John Wiley & Sons8:4, s. 639-6482378-2242

By the author/editor: Isles, Peter D. ...; Creed, Irena F.; Hessen, Dag O.; Kortelainen, Pir ...; Paterson, Michae ...; Pomati, Francesc ...; show more...; Rusak, James A.; Vuorenmaa, Jussi; Bergström, Ann-K ...; show less...

About the subject

NATURAL SCIENCES: NATURAL SCIENCES; and Earth and Relate ...; and Oceanography Hyd ...

NATURAL SCIENCES: NATURAL SCIENCES; and Earth and Relate ...; and Climate Research

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