Hicks’ trade cycle revisited : cycles and bifurcations

• In the Trade Cycle, Hicks introduced the idea that endogenous fluctuations could be coupled with a growth process via nonlinear processes. To argue for this hypothesis, Hicks used a piecewise-linear model. This paper shows the need for a reinterpretation of Hicks’ contribution in the light of a more careful mathematical investigation. In particular, it will be shown that only one bound is needed to have non explosive outcome if the equilibrium point is an unstable focus. It will also be shown that when the fixed point is unstable the attracting set has a particular structure: It is a one-dimensional closed invariant curve, made up of a finite number of linear pieces, on which the dynamics are either periodic or quasi-periodic. The conditions under which the model produces periodic or quasi-periodic trajectories and the related bifurcations as a function of the main economic parameters are determined.

Subject headings

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Ekonomi och näringsliv -- Nationalekonomi (hsv//swe)

SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Economics and Business -- Economics (hsv//eng)

Keyword

Business cycle models

Piecewise-linear maps

Tongues of periodicity

Bifurcation diagram

Economics

Nationalekonomi

Publication and Content Type

ref (subject category)

art (subject category)