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  • Klein, Alison P. (author)

An absolute risk model to identify individuals at elevated risk for pancreatic cancer in the general population.

  • Article/chapterEnglish2013

Publisher, publication year, extent ...

  • 2013-09-13
  • Public Library of Science,2013
  • electronicrdacarrier

Numbers

  • LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:umu-80870
  • https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-80870URI
  • https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0072311DOI

Supplementary language notes

  • Language:English
  • Summary in:English

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  • Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
  • Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype

Notes

  • PURPOSE: We developed an absolute risk model to identify individuals in the general population at elevated risk of pancreatic cancer.PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using data on 3,349 cases and 3,654 controls from the PanScan Consortium, we developed a relative risk model for men and women of European ancestry based on non-genetic and genetic risk factors for pancreatic cancer. We estimated absolute risks based on these relative risks and population incidence rates.RESULTS: Our risk model included current smoking (multivariable adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval: 2.20 [1.84-2.62]), heavy alcohol use (>3 drinks/day) (OR: 1.45 [1.19-1.76]), obesity (body mass index >30 kg/m(2)) (OR: 1.26 [1.09-1.45]), diabetes >3 years (nested case-control OR: 1.57 [1.13-2.18], case-control OR: 1.80 [1.40-2.32]), family history of pancreatic cancer (OR: 1.60 [1.20-2.12]), non-O ABO genotype (AO vs. OO genotype) (OR: 1.23 [1.10-1.37]) to (BB vs. OO genotype) (OR 1.58 [0.97-2.59]), rs3790844(chr1q32.1) (OR: 1.29 [1.19-1.40]), rs401681(5p15.33) (OR: 1.18 [1.10-1.26]) and rs9543325(13q22.1) (OR: 1.27 [1.18-1.36]). The areas under the ROC curve for risk models including only non-genetic factors, only genetic factors, and both non-genetic and genetic factors were 58%, 57% and 61%, respectively. We estimate that fewer than 3/1,000 U.S. non-Hispanic whites have more than a 5% predicted lifetime absolute risk.CONCLUSION: Although absolute risk modeling using established risk factors may help to identify a group of individuals at higher than average risk of pancreatic cancer, the immediate clinical utility of our model is limited. However, a risk model can increase awareness of the various risk factors for pancreatic cancer, including modifiable behaviors.

Subject headings and genre

Added entries (persons, corporate bodies, meetings, titles ...)

  • Lindström, Sara (author)
  • Mendelsohn, Julie B. (author)
  • Steplowski, Emily (author)
  • Arslan, Alan A. (author)
  • Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas (author)
  • Fuchs, Charles S. (author)
  • Gallinger, Steven (author)
  • Gross, Myron (author)
  • Helzlsouer, Kathy (author)
  • Holly, Elizabeth A. (author)
  • Jacobs, Eric J. (author)
  • Lacroix, Andrea (author)
  • Li, Donghui (author)
  • Mandelson, Margaret T. (author)
  • Olson, Sara H. (author)
  • Petersen, Gloria M. (author)
  • Risch, Harvey A. (author)
  • Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachael Z. (author)
  • Zheng, Wei (author)
  • Amundadottir, Laufey (author)
  • Albanes, Demetrius (author)
  • Allen, Naomi E. (author)
  • Bamlet, William R. (author)
  • Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine (author)
  • Buring, Julie E. (author)
  • Bracci, Paige M. (author)
  • Canzian, Federico (author)
  • Clipp, Sandra (author)
  • Cotterchio, Michelle (author)
  • Duell, Eric J. (author)
  • Elena, Joanne (author)
  • Gaziano, J. Michael (author)
  • Giovannucci, Edward L. (author)
  • Goggins, Michael (author)
  • Hallmans, GöranUmeå universitet,Enheten för biobanksforskning,Näringsforskning(Swepub:umu)goha0001 (author)
  • Hassan, Manal (author)
  • Hutchinson, Amy (author)
  • Hunter, David J. (author)
  • Kooperberg, Charles (author)
  • Kurtz, Robert C. (author)
  • Liu, Simin (author)
  • Overvad, Kim (author)
  • Palli, Domenico (author)
  • Patel, Alpa V. (author)
  • Rabe, Kari G. (author)
  • Shu, Xiao-Ou (author)
  • Slimani, Nadia (author)
  • Tobias, Geoffrey S. (author)
  • Trichopoulos, Dimitrios (author)
  • Van Den Eeden, Stephen K. (author)
  • Vineis, Paolo (author)
  • Virtamo, Jarmo (author)
  • Wactawski-Wende, Jean (author)
  • Wolpin, Brian M. (author)
  • Yu, Herbert (author)
  • Yu, Kai (author)
  • Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne (author)
  • Chanock, Stephen J. (author)
  • Hoover, Robert N. (author)
  • Hartge, Patricia (author)
  • Kraft, Peter (author)
  • Umeå universitetEnheten för biobanksforskning (creator_code:org_t)

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