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A new model for 5-y...
A new model for 5-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Type 1 diabetes : from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR)
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- Cederholm, Jan (author)
- Uppsala universitet,Allmänmedicin och preventivmedicin
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- Eeg-Olofsson, Katarina, 1968 (author)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för molekylär och klinisk medicin,Institute of Medicine, Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine
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- Eliasson, Björn, 1959 (author)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för molekylär och klinisk medicin,Institute of Medicine, Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine
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- Zethelius, Björn (author)
- Uppsala universitet,Geriatrik
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- Gudbjörnsdottir, Soffia, 1962 (author)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för medicin,Institute of Medicine
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2011-09-19
- 2011
- English.
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In: Diabetic Medicine. - : Wiley. - 0742-3071 .- 1464-5491. ; 28:10, s. 1213-1220
- Related links:
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://gup.ub.gu.se...
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- Aims: We assessed the association between risk factors and cardiovascular disease in an observational study of patients with Type 1 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.Methods: A derivation sample of 3661 patients, aged 30-65 years, 6.1% with previous cardiovascular disease, baseline 2002, and 197 cardiovascular disease events when followed for 5 years until 2007. A separate validation data set of 4484 patients, baseline 2003, 201 cardiovascular disease events when followed for 4 years.Results: Adjusted hazard ratios at Cox regression for fatal/non-fatal cardiovascular disease were: diabetes duration 2.76 (2.21-3.44); onset age 1.47 (1.21-1.78); log ratio total cholesterol:HDL cholesterol 1.26 (1.09-1.45); log HbA(1c) 1.19 (1.03-1.38); log systolic blood pressure 1.17 (1.01-1.34) (1 SD increase in continuous variables); smoker 1.76 (1.27-2.46); macroalbuminuria (> 200 mu g/min) 1.52 (1.10-2.10); previous cardiovascular disease 3.51 (2.54-4.84). All eight variables were used to elaborate a risk equation for 5-year cardiovascular disease risk. Regarding calibration in the derivation data set, ratio predicted 5-year risk (mean 5.4 +/- 7.9%) to observed event rate was 1.0. Discrimination was sufficient, with C-statistic 0.83, sensitivity and specificity 72 and 77%, respectively, for the top quartile of predicted risk. Similarly, calibration and discrimination were adequate in the validation data set: ratio of predicted 4-year risk/observed rate 0.94, C-statistic 0.80, sensitivity and specificity 62 and 77%, respectively, for the top quartile.Conclusions: This 5-year cardiovascular disease risk model from a large observational study of patients with Type 1 diabetes in routine care showed adequate calibration and discrimination and can be useful for clinical practice. It should also be tested in patients with Type 1 diabetes from other countries.
Subject headings
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Endokrinologi och diabetes (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Endocrinology and Diabetes (hsv//eng)
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Dermatologi och venereologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Dermatology and Venereal Diseases (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- cardiovascular diseases
- diabetes
- macrovascular disease
- modelling
- register
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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