Sökning: WFRF:(Lindskog Marcus 1980 ) >
Naïve Point Estimation
Naïve Point Estimation
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- Lindskog, Marcus, 1980- (författare)
- Uppsala universitet,Institutionen för psykologi
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- Winman, Anders (författare)
- Uppsala universitet,Institutionen för psykologi
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- Juslin, Peter (författare)
- Uppsala universitet,Institutionen för psykologi
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2013
- 2013
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory and Cognition. - : American Psychological Association (APA). - 0278-7393 .- 1939-1285. ; 39:3, s. 782-800
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- The capacity of short-term memory is a key constraint when people make online judgments requiringthem to rely on samples retrieved from memory (e.g., Dougherty & Hunter, 2003). In this article, theauthors compare 2 accounts of how people use knowledge of statistical distributions to make pointestimates: either by retrieving precomputed large-sample representations or by retrieving small samplesof similar observations post hoc at the time of judgment, as constrained by short-term memory capacity(the naı¨ve sampling model: Juslin, Winman, & Hansson, 2007). Results from four experiments supportthe predictions by the naı¨ve sampling model, including that participants sometimes guess values thatthey, when probed, demonstrably know have the lowest probability of occurring. Experiment 1 alsodemonstrated the operations of an unpredicted recognition-based inference. Computational modeling alsoincorporating this process demonstrated that the data from all 4 experiments were better predicted byassuming a post hoc sampling process constrained by short-term memory capacity than by assumingabstraction of large-sample representations of the distribution.
Ämnesord
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Psykologi -- Psykologi (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Psychology -- Psychology (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- point estimation
- sampling model
- intuitive statistics
- Psychology
- Psykologi
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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