A consistent estimator of the evolutionary rate

• We consider a branching particle system where particles reproduce according to the pure birth Yule process with the birth rate λ, conditioned on the observed number of particles to be equal to n. Particles are assumed to move independently on the real line according to the Brownian motion with the local variance σ2. In this paper we treat n particles as a sample of related species. The spatial Brownian motion of a particle describes the development of a trait value of interest (e.g. log-body-size). We propose an unbiased estimator Rn2 of the evolutionary rate ρ2=σ2/λ. The estimator Rn2 is proportional to the sample variance Sn2 computed from n trait values. We find an approximate formula for the standard error of Rn2 based on a neat asymptotic relation for the variance of Sn2.

Subject headings

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Biologi -- Evolutionsbiologi (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Biological Sciences -- Evolutionary Biology (hsv//eng)

Keyword

Branching Brownian motion; Conditioned branching process; Tree-free phylogenetic comparative method; Quantitative trait evolution; Yule process

Statistics

Statistik

Mathematical Statistics

Matematisk statistik

Biology

Biologi

Publication and Content Type

ref (subject category)

art (subject category)