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Propagation of bias...
Propagation of biases in climate models from the synoptic to the regional scale : Implications for bias adjustment
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- Addor, Nans (author)
- Univ Zurich, Dept Geog, Zurich, Switzerland.;Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Appl Res Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA.
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- Rohrer, Marco (author)
- Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland.;Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Bern, Switzerland.
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- Furrer, Reinhard (author)
- Univ Zurich, Dept Math, Zurich, Switzerland.
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- Seibert, Jan (author)
- Uppsala universitet,Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära,Univ Zurich, Dept Geog, Zurich, Switzerland.
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Univ Zurich, Dept Geog, Zurich, Switzerland;Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Appl Res Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland.;Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Bern, Switzerland. (creator_code:org_t)
- 2016
- 2016
- English.
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In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. - 2169-897X .- 2169-8996. ; 121:5, s. 2075-2089
- Related links:
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- Bias adjustment methods usually do not account for the origins of biases in climate models and instead perform empirical adjustments. Biases in the synoptic circulation are for instance often overlooked when postprocessing regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by general circulation models (GCMs). Yet considering atmospheric circulation helps to establish links between the synoptic and the regional scale, and thereby provides insights into the physical processes leading to RCM biases. Here we investigate how synoptic circulation biases impact regional climate simulations and influence our ability to mitigate biases in precipitation and temperature using quantile mapping. We considered 20 GCM-RCM combinations from the ENSEMBLES project and characterized the dominant atmospheric flow over the Alpine domain using circulation types. We report in particular a systematic overestimation of the frequency of westerly flow in winter. We show that it contributes to the generalized overestimation of winter precipitation over Switzerland, and this wet regional bias can be reduced by improving the simulation of synoptic circulation. We also demonstrate that statistical bias adjustment relying on quantile mapping is sensitive to circulation biases, which leads to residual errors in the postprocessed time series. Overall, decomposing GCM-RCM time series using circulation types reveals connections missed by analyses relying on monthly or seasonal values. Our results underscore the necessity to better diagnose process misrepresentation in climate models to progress with bias adjustment and impact modeling.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- bias adjustment
- regional climate simulation
- impact modeling
- synoptic circulation
- downscaling
- process misrepresentation
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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