GlacierMIP - A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections

Hock, Regine,1960-Uppsala universitet,Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära,Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Geophys, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA (författare)

Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global glacier models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 projections of annual glacier mass and area forced by 25 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios and aggregated into 19 glacier regions are considered. Global mass loss of all glaciers (outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) by 2100 relative to 2015 averaged over all model runs varies from 18 +/- 7% (RCP2.6) to 36 +/- 11% (RCP8.5) corresponding to 94 +/- 25 and 200 +/- 44 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), respectively. Regional relative mass changes by 2100 correlate linearly with relative area changes. For RCP8.5 three models project global rates of mass loss (multi-GCM means) of >3 mm SLE per year towards the end of the century. Projections vary considerably between regions, and also among the glacier models. Global glacier mass changes per degree global air temperature rise tend to increase with more pronounced warming indicating that mass-balance sensitivities to temperature change are not constant. Differences in glacier mass projections among the models are attributed to differences in model physics, calibration and downscaling procedures, initial ice volumes and varying ensembles of forcing GCMs.

Bliss, AndrewColorado State Univ, Dept Anthropol & Geog, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA (författare)
Marzeion, BenUniv Bremen, Inst Geog, Bremen, Germany;Univ Bremen, MARUM Ctr Marine Environm Sci, Bremen, Germany (författare)
Giesen, Rianne H.Univ Utrecht, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res, Utrecht, Netherlands (författare)
Hirabayashi, YukikoShibaura Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Tokyo, Japan (författare)
Huss, MatthiasSwiss Fed Inst Technol, Lab Hydraul Hydrol & Glaciol VAW, Zurich, Switzerland;Univ Fribourg, Dept Geosci, Fribourg, Switzerland (författare)
Radic, ValentinaUniv British Columbia, Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci Dept, Vancouver, BC, Canada (författare)
Slangen, Aimee B. A.NIOZ Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res, Dept Estuarine & Delta Syst, Yerseke, Netherlands;Univ Utrecht, Yerseke, Netherlands (författare)
Uppsala universitetLuft-, vatten- och landskapslära (creator_code:org_t)

Ingår i:Journal of Glaciology: Cambridge University Press65:251, s. 453-4670022-14301727-5652

Av författaren/redakt...: Hock, Regine, 19 ...; Bliss, Andrew; Marzeion, Ben; Giesen, Rianne H ...; Hirabayashi, Yuk ...; Huss, Matthias; visa fler...; Radic, Valentina; Slangen, Aimee B ...; visa färre...

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