A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

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Golub, MalgorzataUppsala universitet,Limnologi (author)

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide : the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Article/chapterEnglish2022

Publisher, publication year, extent ...

2022-06-16
Copernicus Publications,2022
electronicrdacarrier

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LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:uu-480014
https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-480014URI
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4597-2022DOI
https://res.slu.se/id/publ/118234URI

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Language:English
Summary in:English

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SwePubSwePub

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Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype

Notes

Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

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Thiery, WimVrije Univ Brussel, Dept Hydrol & Hydraul Engn, Brussels, Belgium. (author)
Marce, RafaelCatalan Inst Water Res ICRA, Resources & Ecosyst Area, Girona, Spain.;Univ Girona, Girona, Spain. (author)
Pierson, DonUppsala universitet,Limnologi(Swepub:uu)donpiers (author)
Vanderkelen, InneVrije Univ Brussel, Dept Hydrol & Hydraul Engn, Brussels, Belgium. (author)
Mercado-Bettin, DanielCatalan Inst Water Res ICRA, Resources & Ecosyst Area, Girona, Spain.;Univ Girona, Girona, Spain. (author)
Woolway, R. IestynUniv Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England. (author)
Grant, LukeVrije Univ Brussel, Dept Hydrol & Hydraul Engn, Brussels, Belgium. (author)
Jennings, EleanorDundalk Inst Technol, Ctr Freshwater & Environm Studies, Dundalk, Ireland. (author)
Kraemer, Benjamin M.Univ Konstanz, Limnol Inst, Constance, Germany.,Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany.,Wisconsin Dept Nat Resources, Madison, WI USA. (author)
Schewe, JacobLeibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany. (author)
Zhao, FangLeibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany.;East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China. (author)
Frieler, KatjaLeibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany. (author)
Mengel, MatthiasLeibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany.,Lomonosov Moscow State Univ, Moscow, Russia. (author)
Bogomolov, Vasiliy Y.Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, Inst Monitoring Climat & Ecol Syst, Tomsk, Russia.;Tomsk State Univ, Tomsk, Russia.;Russian Acad Sci, Obukhov Inst Atmospher Phys, Moscow, Russia. (author)
Bouffard, DamienEawag Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Surface Waters Res & Management, CH-6047 Kastanienbaum, Switzerland. (author)
Cote, MarianneUniv Laval, Dept Chem, Quebec City, PQ, Canada. (author)
Couture, Raoul-MarieUniv Laval, Dept Chem, Quebec City, PQ, Canada.;Ctr Northern Study, Quebec City, PQ G1V 0A6, Canada. (author)
Debolskiy, Andrey, VRussian Acad Sci, Obukhov Inst Atmospher Phys, Moscow, Russia.;Lomonosov Moscow State Univ, Moscow, Russia. (author)
Droppers, BramWageningen Univ & Res, Water Syst & Global Change Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands. (author)
Gal, GideonIsrael Oceanog & Limnol Res, Kinneret Limnol Lab, Migdal, Israel.,Wageningen Univ & Res, Water Syst & Global Change Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands. (author)
Guo, MingyangPurdue Univ, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. (author)
Janssen, Annette B. G.Wageningen Univ & Res, Water Syst & Global Change Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands. (author)
Kirillin, GeorgiyLeibniz Inst Freshwater Ecol & Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany. (author)
Ladwig, RobertUniv Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI USA. (author)
Magee, MadelineWisconsin Dept Nat Resources, Madison, WI USA. (author)
Moore, TadhgDundalk Inst Technol, Dept Appl Sci, Dundalk, Ireland.;Virginia Tech, Dept Biol Sci, Blacksburg, VA USA. (author)
Perroud, MarjorieUniv Geneva, Inst Environm Sci, Geneva, Switzerland. (author)
Piccolroaz, SebastianoUniv Trento, Dept Civil Environm & Mech Engn, Trento, Italy.;Ecole Polytech Fed Laussane, Phys Aquat Syst Lab APHYS, Margaretha Kamprad Chair, Lausanne, Switzerland. (author)
Vinnaa, Love RaamanEawag Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Surface Waters Res & Management, CH-6047 Kastanienbaum, Switzerland. (author)
Schmid, MartinEawag Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Surface Waters Res & Management, CH-6047 Kastanienbaum, Switzerland. (author)
Shatwell, TomLeibniz Inst Freshwater Ecol & Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany.;UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Lake Res, Magdeburg, Germany. (author)
Stepanenko, Victor M.Lomonosov Moscow State Univ, Moscow, Russia. (author)
Tan, ZeliPacific Northwest Natl Lab, Richland, WA 99352 USA. (author)
Woodward, BronwynUniv Western Australia, Sch Civil Environm & Min Engn, Perth, WA, Australia. (author)
Yao, HuaxiaOntario Minist Environm Conservat & Pk, Dorset Environm Sci Ctr, Dorset, ON, Canada. (author)
Adrian, RitaLeibniz Inst Freshwater Ecol & Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany.;Free Univ Berlin, Inst Biol, Berlin, Germany. (author)
Allan, MathewWaikato Reg Council, Hamilton, New Zealand.;Univ Waikato, Environm Res Inst, Hamilton, New Zealand. (author)
Anneville, OrlaneUniv Savoie Mt Blanc, UMR CARRTEL, INRAE, F-74203 Thonon Les Bains, France. (author)
Arvola, LauriUniv Helsinki, Lammi Biol Stn, Lammi 16900, Finland. (author)
Atkins, KarenUniv Calif Davis, Tahoe Environm Res Ctr, Davis, CA 95616 USA. (author)
Boegman, LeonQueens Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Kingston, ON, Canada. (author)
Carey, CayelanVirginia Tech, Dept Biol Sci, Blacksburg, VA USA. (author)
Christianson, KyleUniv Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. (author)
de Eyto, ElviraMarine Inst, Newport F28 X252, Co Mayo, Ireland. (author)
DeGasperi, CurtisKing Cty Dept Nat Resources & Pk, Water & Land Resources Div, Seattle, WA USA. (author)
Grechushnikova, MariaLomonosov Moscow State Univ, Moscow, Russia. (author)
Hejzlar, JosefCzech Acad Sci, Biol Ctr, Inst Hydrobiol, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic. (author)
Joehnk, KlausCSIRO Land & Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia. (author)
Jones, Ian D.Univ Stirling, Biol & Environm Sci, Stirling, Scotland. (author)
Laas, AloEstonian Univ Life Sci, Chair Hydrobiol & Fishery, Inst Agr & Environm Sci, Tartu, Estonia. (author)
Mackay, Eleanor B.UK Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lake Ecosyst Grp, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England. (author)
Mammarella, IvanUniv Helsinki, Inst Atmospher & Earth Syst Res Phys, Helsinki, Finland. (author)
Markensten, HampusSwedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Institutionen för vatten och miljö,Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment,Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Aquat Sci & Assessment, S-75007 Uppsala, Sweden.(Swepub:slu)50894 (author)
McBride, ChrisUniv Waikato, Environm Res Inst, Hamilton, New Zealand. (author)
Ozkundakci, DenizUniv Waikato, Environm Res Inst, Hamilton, New Zealand. (author)
Potes, MiguelUniv Evora, Inst Ciencias Terra ICT Polo Evora, Inst Invest & Formacao Avancada IIFA, Evora, Portugal.;Univ Evora, Earth Remote Sensing Lab EaRSLab, Inst Invest & Formacao Avancada IIFA, Evora, Portugal. (author)
Rinke, KarstenUFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Lake Res, Magdeburg, Germany. (author)
Robertson, DaleUS Geol Survey, Upper Midwest Water Sci Ctr, Madison, WI USA. (author)
Rusak, James A.Ontario Minist Environm Conservat & Pk, Dorset Environm Sci Ctr, Dorset, ON, Canada. (author)
Salgado, RuiUniv Evora, Inst Ciencias Terra, Escola Ciencias & Tecnol, Dept Fis, Evora, Portugal. (author)
van der Linden, LeonSouth Australian Water Corp, Adelaide, SA, Australia. (author)
Verburg, PietNatl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Hamilton, New Zealand. (author)
Wain, Danielle7 Lakes Alliance, Belgrade Lakes, ME 04901 USA. (author)
Ward, Nicole K.Virginia Tech, Dept Biol Sci, Blacksburg, VA USA. (author)
Wollrab, SabineLeibniz Inst Freshwater Ecol & Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany. (author)
Zdorovennova, GalinaRAS, Karelian Res Ctr, Northern Water Problems Inst, Petrozavodsk, Russia. (author)
Uppsala universitetLimnologi (creator_code:org_t)
Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet

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In:Geoscientific Model Development: Copernicus Publications15:11, s. 4597-46231991-959X1991-9603

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By the author/editor: Golub, Malgorzat ...; Thiery, Wim; Marce, Rafael; Pierson, Don; Vanderkelen, Inn ...; Mercado-Bettin, ...; show more...; Woolway, R. Iest ...; Grant, Luke; Jennings, Eleano ...; Kraemer, Benjami ...; Schewe, Jacob; Zhao, Fang; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Bogomolov, Vasil ...; Bouffard, Damien; Cote, Marianne; Couture, Raoul-M ...; Debolskiy, Andre ...; Droppers, Bram; Gal, Gideon; Guo, Mingyang; Janssen, Annette ...; Kirillin, Georgi ...; Ladwig, Robert; Magee, Madeline; Moore, Tadhg; Perroud, Marjori ...; Piccolroaz, Seba ...; Vinnaa, Love Raa ...; Schmid, Martin; Shatwell, Tom; Stepanenko, Vict ...; Tan, Zeli; Woodward, Bronwy ...; Yao, Huaxia; Adrian, Rita; Allan, Mathew; Anneville, Orlan ...; Arvola, Lauri; Atkins, Karen; Boegman, Leon; Carey, Cayelan; Christianson, Ky ...; de Eyto, Elvira; DeGasperi, Curti ...; Grechushnikova, ...; Hejzlar, Josef; Joehnk, Klaus; Jones, Ian D.; Laas, Alo; Mackay, Eleanor ...; Mammarella, Ivan; Markensten, Hamp ...; McBride, Chris; Ozkundakci, Deni ...; Potes, Miguel; Rinke, Karsten; Robertson, Dale; Rusak, James A.; Salgado, Rui; van der Linden, ...; Verburg, Piet; Wain, Danielle; Ward, Nicole K.; Wollrab, Sabine; Zdorovennova, Ga ...; show less...

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NATURAL SCIENCES: NATURAL SCIENCES; and Earth and Relate ...; and Oceanography Hyd ...

NATURAL SCIENCES: NATURAL SCIENCES; and Earth and Relate ...; and Climate Research

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