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Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement

Domingo, Nina G.G. (författare)
Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, CT, New Haven, United States; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, CT, New Haven, United States
Fiore, Arlene M. (författare)
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MA, Cambridge, United States
Lamarque, Jean-Francois (författare)
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, CO, Boulder, United States
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Kinney, Patrick L. (författare)
Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, MA, Boston, United States
Jiang, Leiwen (författare)
Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China; Population Council, NY, New York, United States
Gasparrini, Antonio (författare)
Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
Breitner, Susanne (författare)
IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
Lavigne, Eric (författare)
School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, ON, Ottawa, Canada; Environmental Health and Science Bureau, Heatlh Canada, ON, Ottawa, Canada
Madureira, Joana (författare)
Environmental Health Department of the National Health Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; EPIUnit - Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal
Masselot, Pierre (författare)
Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
Silva, Susana das Neves Pereira da (författare)
Environmental Health Department of the National Health Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal
Sheng Ng, Chris Fook (författare)
Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
Kyselý, Jan (författare)
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
Guo, Yuming (författare)
Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, NSW, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, NSW, Melbourne, Australia
Tong, Shilu (författare)
School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, QLD, Brisbane, Australia; School of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China
Kan, Haidong (författare)
Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
Urban, Aleš (författare)
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
Orru, Hans (författare)
Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
Maasikmets, Marek (författare)
Estonian Environmental Research Centre, Tallinn, Estonia
Pascal, Mathilde (författare)
Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
Katsouyanni, Klea (författare)
Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; Environmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
Samoli, Evangelia (författare)
Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
Scortichini, Matteo (författare)
Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
Stafoggia, Massimo (författare)
Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
Hashizume, Masahiro (författare)
Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Alahmad, Barrak (författare)
Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, MA, Boston, United States
Diaz, Magali Hurtado (författare)
Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Morelos, Cuernavaca, Mexico
De la Cruz Valencia, César (författare)
Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Morelos, Cuernavaca, Mexico
Scovronick, Noah (författare)
Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, GA, Atlanta, United States
Garland, Rebecca M. (författare)
Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
Kim, Ho (författare)
Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
Lee, Whanhee (författare)
Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, College of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea; Institute of Ewha-SCL for Environmental Health (IESEH), Seoul, South Korea
Tobias, Aurelio (författare)
School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan; Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
Íñiguez, Carmen (författare)
Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain; Ciberesp, Madrid, Spain
Forsberg, Bertil, professor, 1956- (författare)
Umeå universitet,Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin
Åström, Christofer, 1983- (författare)
Umeå universitet,Institutionen för folkhälsa och klinisk medicin
Ragettli, Martina S. (författare)
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
Guo, Yue Leon (författare)
Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University (NTU) College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
Pan, Shih-Chun (författare)
National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
Colistro, Valentina (författare)
The Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay
Bell, Michelle (författare)
School of the Environment, Yale University, CT, New Haven, United States
Zanobetti, Antonella (författare)
Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, MA, Boston, United States
Schwartz, Joel (författare)
Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, MA, Boston, United States
Schneider, Alexandra (författare)
Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M. (författare)
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Chen, Kai (författare)
Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, CT, New Haven, United States; Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, CT, New Haven, United States
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 (creator_code:org_t)
Elsevier, 2024
2024
Engelska.
Ingår i: One Earth. - : Elsevier. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 7:2, s. 325-335
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
Abstract Ämnesord
Stäng  
  • Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

acute excess mortality
bias correction
climate change
CMIP6
Ozone
Paris Agreement
projection
shared socioeconomic pathways
short-term exposure

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)
art (ämneskategori)

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