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Insights into the a...
Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
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- Grossmann, Igor (author)
- Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
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- Rotella, Amanda A. (author)
- Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.;Northumbria Univ, Dept Psychol, Northumbria, England.
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- Hutcherson, Cendri (author)
- Univ Toronto Scarborough, Dept Psychol, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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- Sharpinskyi, Konstantyn (author)
- Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
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- Varnum, Michael E. W. (author)
- Arizona State Univ, Dept Psychol, Tempe, AZ USA.
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- Achter, Sebastian K. (author)
- Hamburg Univ Technol, Inst Management Accounting & Simulat, Hamburg, Germany.;Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.;Aberystwyth Univ, Dept Psychol, Aberystwyth, Wales.
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- Dhami, Mandeep (author)
- Middlesex Univ London, Dept Psychol, London, England.
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- Guo, Xinqi Evie (author)
- Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Expt Psychol, San Diego, CA USA.
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- Kara-Yakoubian, Mane R. (author)
- Toronto Metropolitan Univ, Dept Psychol, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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- Mandel, David (author)
- Def Res & Dev Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada.;York Univ, Dept Psychol, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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- Raes, Louis (author)
- Tilburg Univ, Dept Econ, Tilburg, Netherlands.
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- Tay, Louis (author)
- Purdue Univ, Dept Psychol Sci, W Lafayette, IN USA.
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- Vie, Aymeric (author)
- Univ Oxford, Math Inst, Oxford, England.;Univ Oxford, Inst New Econ Thinking, Oxford, England.
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- Wagner, Lisa (author)
- Univ Zurich, Jacobs Ctr Prod Youth Dev, Zurich, Switzerland.
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- Adamkovic, Matus (author)
- Univ Presov, Inst Psychol, Presov, Slovakia.;Slovak Acad Sci, Inst Social Sci, CSPS, Bratislava, Slovakia.;Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.
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- Univ Waterloo, Dept Mech & Mechatron Engn, Waterloo, ON, Canada.;Univ Hlth Network, Toronto Rehabil Inst KITE, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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- Iscte Univ, CIS, Inst Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal.
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- Univ Melbourne, Melbourne Ctr Data Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
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- Univ Presov, Inst Psychol, Presov, Slovakia.
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- Univ Amsterdam, Fac Social & Behav Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
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- Baskin, Ernest (author)
- St Josephs Univ, Haub Sch Business, Dept Food Mkt, Philadelphia, PA USA.
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- Bergmeir, Christoph (author)
- Monash Univ, Dept Data Sci & Artificial Intelligence, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
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- Bialek, Michal K. (author)
- Univ Wroclaw, Inst Psychol, Wroclaw, Poland.
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- Borsting, Caroline T. (author)
- Aarhus Univ, Dept Management, Aarhus, Denmark.
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- Browne, Dillon M. (author)
- Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
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- Caruso, Eugene (author)
- Univ Calif Los Angeles, Anderson Sch Management, Los Angeles, CA USA.
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- Chen, Rong (author)
- Dominican Univ Calif, Dept Psychol, San Rafael, CA USA.
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- Chie, Bin-Tzong J. (author)
- Tamkang Univ, Dept Ind Econ, New Taipei City, Taiwan.
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- Chopik, William N. (author)
- Michigan State Univ, Dept Psychol, E Lansing, MI USA.
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- Collins, Robert (author)
- Def Res & Dev Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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Cong, Chin Wen G. (author)
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- Conway, Lucian (author)
- Grove City Coll, Psychol Dept, Grove City, PA USA.
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- Davis, Matthew V. (author)
- Siena Coll, Dept Econ, Loudonville, NY USA.
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- Day, Martin A. (author)
- Mem Univ Newfoundland, Dept Psychol, St John, NF, Canada.
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- Dhaliwal, Nathan D. (author)
- Univ British Columbia, UBC Sauder Sch Business, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
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- Durham, Justin (author)
- Univ Oklahoma, Dept Psychol, Norman, OK USA.
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- Dziekan, Martyna T. (author)
- Adam Mickiewicz Univ, Fac Psychol & Cognit Sci, Poznan, Poland.
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- Elbaek, Christian (author)
- Aarhus Univ, Dept Management, Aarhus, Denmark.
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- Shuman, Eric (author)
- Univ Groningen, Dept Psychol, Groningen, Netherlands.
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- Fabrykant, Marharyta (author)
- HSE Univ, Expert Inst, Lab Comparat Studies Mass Consciousness, Moscow, Russia.;Belarusian State Univ, Fac Philosophy & Social Sci, Minsk, BELARUS.
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- Firat, Mustafa T. (author)
- Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Dept Sociol, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
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- Fong, Geoffrey A. (author)
- Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.;Ontario Inst Canc Res, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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- Univ Winnipeg, Dept Psychol, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.
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- Univ Washington, Dept Psychol, Seattle, WA USA.
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- Univ Wisconsin Madison, Dept Counseling Psychol, Madison, WI USA.
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- Gollwitzer, Anton (author)
- BI Norwegian Business Sch, Dept Leadership & Org Behav, Oslo, Norway.;Max Planck Inst Human Dev, Ctr Adapt Rat, Berlin, Germany.
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- Univ Waterloo, Sch Publ Hlth Sci, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
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- Graf-Vlachy, Lorenz D. (author)
- TU Dortmund Univ, Dortmund, Germany.;ESCP Business Sch, Paris, France.
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- Gronlund, Scott (author)
- Univ Oklahoma, Dept Psychol, Norman, OK USA.
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- Hafenbraedl, Sebastian (author)
- IESE Business Sch, Barcelona, Spain.
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- Hartanto, Andree J. (author)
- Singapore Management Univ, Sch Social Sci, Singapore, Singapore.
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- Hirshberg, Matthew J. (author)
- Univ Wisconsin Madison, Ctr Hlth Minds, Madison, WI USA.
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- Hornsey, Matthew (author)
- Univ Queensland, Business Sch, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
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- Howe, Piers D. L. (author)
- Univ Melbourne, Melbourne Sch Psychol Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
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- Izadi, Anoosha (author)
- Univ Massachusetts Dartmouth, Dept Mkt, Dartmouth, MA USA.
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- Jaeger, Bastian (author)
- Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Expt & Appl Psychol, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
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- Kacmar, Pavol (author)
- Pavol Jozef Safarik Univ Kosice, Fac Arts, Dept Psychol, Kosice, Slovakia.
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- Kim, Yeun Joon (author)
- Univ Cambridge, Cambridge Judge Business Sch, Cambridge, England.
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- Krenzler, Ruslan G. (author)
- Hermes Germany GmbH, Hamburg, Germany.;Univ Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.
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- Lannin, Daniel (author)
- Illinois State Univ, Dept Psychol, Normal, IL USA.
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- Lin, Hung-Wen (author)
- Natl Pingtung Univ, Dept Business Adm, Pingtung, Taiwan.
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- Lou, Nigel Mantou (author)
- Univ Victoria, Dept Psychol, Victoria, BC, Canada.;Univ Victoria, Ctr Youth & Soc, Victoria, BC, Canada.
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- Lua, Verity Y. Q. W. (author)
- Singapore Management Univ, Sch Social Sci, Singapore, Singapore.
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- Lukaszewski, Aaron L. (author)
- Calif State Univ, Dept Psychol, Fullerton, CA USA.;Calif State Univ, Ctr Study Human Nat, Fullerton, CA USA.
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- Ly, Albert R. (author)
- Loma Linda Univ, Dept Psychol, Loma Linda, CA USA.
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- Madan, Christopher (author)
- Univ Nottingham, Nottingham, England.
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- Maier, Maximilian M. (author)
- UCL, Dept Expt Psychol, London, England.
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- Majeed, Nadyanna S. (author)
- Singapore Management Univ, Singapore, Singapore.
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- March, David A. (author)
- Florida State Univ, Dept Psychol, Tallahassee, FL USA.
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- Marsh, Abigail (author)
- Georgetown Univ, Dept Psychol, Washington, DC USA.
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- Misiak, Michal (author)
- Univ Wroclaw, Inst Psychol, Wroclaw, Poland.;Univ Oxford, Sch Anthropol, Oxford, England.;Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.
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- Myrseth, Kristian Ove R. M. (author)
- Univ York, Sch Business & Soc, York, England.
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- Napan, Jaime (author)
- Loma Linda Univ, Dept Psychol, Loma Linda, CA USA.
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- Nicholas, Jonathan (author)
- Columbia Univ, Dept Psychol, New York, NY USA.
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- Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos (author)
- Univ Durham, IHRR Forecasting Lab, Durham, England.
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- Otterbring, Tobias (author)
- Univ Agder, Sch Business & Law, Dept Management, Kristiansand, Norway.;Inst Retail Econ, Stockholm, Sweden.
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- Paruzel-Czachura, Mariola (author)
- Univ Silesia Katowice, Inst Psychol, Katowice, Poland.;Univ Penn, Penn Ctr Neuroaesthet, Dept Neurol, Philadelphia, PA USA.
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- Pauer, Shiva (author)
- Univ Amsterdam, Fac Social & Behav Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
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- Protzko, John (author)
- Cent Connecticut State Univ, New Britain, CT USA.
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- Raffaelli, Quentin (author)
- Univ Arizona, Dept Psychol, Tucson, AZ USA.
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- Ropovik, Ivan (author)
- Charles Univ Prague, Inst Res & Dev Educ, Fac Educ, Prague, Czech Republic.;Univ Presov, Fac Educ, Presov, Slovakia.
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- Ross, Robert M. (author)
- Macquarie Univ, Sch Psychol, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
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- Roth, Yefim (author)
- Univ Haifa, Dept Human Serv, Haifa, Israel.
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- Roysamb, Espen (author)
- Univ Oslo, Promenta Ctr, Dept Psychol, Oslo, Norway.
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- Schnabel, Landon (author)
- Cornell Univ, Dept Sociol, Ithaca, NY USA.
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- Schuetz, Astrid (author)
- Univ Bamberg, Inst Psychol, Bamberg, Germany.
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- Seifert, Matthias (author)
- IE Univ, IE Business Sch, Madrid, Spain.
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- Sherman, Garrick T. (author)
- Univ Penn, Dept Comp & Informat Sci, Philadelphia, PA USA.
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- Simonsson, Otto (author)
- Karolinska Institutet
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- Univ Southampton, Dept Decis Analyt & Risk, Southampton, England.
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- Tai, Chung-Ching (author)
- Univ Southampton, Dept Decis Analyt & Risk, Southampton, England.
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- Talhelm, Thomas (author)
- Univ Chicago, Booth Sch Business, Chicago, IL USA.
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- Teachman, Bethany A. (author)
- Univ Virginia, Dept Psychol, Charlottesville, VA USA.
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- Tetlock, Philip E. (author)
- Univ Penn, Psychol Dept, Philadelphia, PA USA.;Univ Penn, Wharton Sch Business, Philadelphia, PA USA.
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- Thomakos, Dimitrios (author)
- Natl & Kapodistrian Univ Athens, Dept Econ, Athens, Greece.
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- Tse, Dwight C. K. (author)
- Univ Strathclyde, Sch Psychol Sci & Hlth, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland.
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- Twardus, Oliver J. (author)
- Univ Guelph, Dept Psychol, Guelph, ON, Canada.
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- Tybur, Joshua M. (author)
- Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Expt & Appl Psychol, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
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- Univ Penn, Dept Comp & Informat Sci, Philadelphia, PA USA.
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- Vandermeulen, Daan (author)
- Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Psychol Dept, Jerusalem, Israel.
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- Vaughan Williams, Leighton (author)
- Nottingham Trent Univ, Dept Econ, Nottingham, England.
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- Vosgerichian, Hrag A. (author)
- Northwestern Univ, Dept Management & Org, Evanston, IL USA.
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- Wang, Qi (author)
- Cornell Univ, Coll Human Ecol, Ithaca, NY USA.
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- Wang, Ke (author)
- Harvard Univ, Harvard Kennedy Sch, Cambridge, MA USA.
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- Whiting, Mark E. (author)
- Univ Penn, Comp & Informat Sci, Philadelphia, PA USA.;Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, Operat Informat & Decis Dept, Philadelphia, PA USA.
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- Wollbrant, Conny E. (author)
- Univ St Andrews, Sch Econ & Finance, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland.
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- Yang, Tao (author)
- Univ North Carolina Wilmington, Cameron Sch Business, Dept Management, Wilmington, NC USA.
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- Yogeeswaran, Kumar (author)
- Univ Canterbury, Sch Psychol Speech & Hearing, Christchurch, New Zealand.
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- Yoon, Sangsuk (author)
- Univ Dayton, Dept Mkt, Dayton, OH USA.
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- Alves, Ventura R. (author)
- Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.;ISG Univ Lusofona, Lisbon, Portugal.
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- Andrews-Hanna, Jessica R. (author)
- Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.;Univ Arizona, Dept Psychol, Tucson, AZ USA.;Univ Arizona, Cognit Sci, Tucson, AZ USA.
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- Bloom, Paul A. (author)
- Columbia Univ, Dept Psychol, New York, NY USA.
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- Boyles, Anthony (author)
- Ephemer Al, Atlanta, GA USA.
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- Charis, Loo (author)
- Boston Univ, Questrom Sch Business, Boston, MA USA.
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- Choi, Mingyeong (author)
- Pusan Natl Univ, Inst Social Sci Res, Pusan, South Korea.
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- Darling-Hammond, Sean (author)
- Univ Calif Los Angeles, Fielding Sch Publ Hlth, Los Angeles, CA USA.
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- Ferguson, Z. E. (author)
- Univ Washington, Psychol Dept, Seattle, WA USA.
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- Kaiser, Cheryl R. (author)
- Univ Washington, Dept Psychol, Seattle, WA USA.
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- Karg, Simon T. (author)
- Aarhus Univ, Dept Polit Sci, Aarhus, Denmark.
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- Ortega, Alberto Lopez (author)
- Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Expt & Appl Psychol, Amsterdam, Netherlands.;Aberystwyth Univ, Dept Psychol, Aberystwyth, Wales.
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- Mahoney, Lori (author)
- Wright State Univ, Coll Sci & Math, Fairborn, OH USA.
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- Marsh, Melvin S. (author)
- Georgia Southern Univ, Dept Psychol, Statesboro, GA USA.
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- Martinie, Marcellin F. R. C. (author)
- Univ Melbourne, Melbourne Sch Psychol Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
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- Michaels, Eli K. (author)
- Univ Calif Berkeley, Sch Publ Hlth, Div Epidemiol, Berkeley, CA USA.
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- Millroth, Philip (author)
- Uppsala universitet,Institutionen för psykologi
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- Naqvi, Jeanean B. (author)
- Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Psychol, Pittsburgh, PA USA.
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- Ng, Weiting (author)
- Singapore Univ Social Sci, Sch Humanities & Behav Sci, Singapore, Singapore.
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- Rutledge, Robb B. (author)
- Yale Univ, Dept Psychol, New Haven, CT USA.
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- Slattery, Peter (author)
- Monash Univ, Behav Works Australia, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
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- Smiley, Adam H. (author)
- Univ Washington, Dept Psychol, Seattle, WA USA.
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- Strijbis, Oliver (author)
- Univ Zurich, Inst Polit Sci, Zurich, Switzerland.
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- Sznycer, Daniel (author)
- Oklahoma State Univ, Dept Psychol, Stillwater, OK USA.
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- Tsukayama, Eli (author)
- Univ Hawaii West Oahu, Dept Business Adm, Kapolei, HI USA.
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- van Loon, Austin (author)
- Stanford Univ, Dept Sociol, Stanford, CA USA.
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- Voelkel, Jan G. (author)
- Stanford Univ, Dept Sociol, Stanford, CA USA.
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- Wienk, Margaux N. A. (author)
- Columbia Univ, Dept Psychol, New York, NY USA.
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- Wilkening, Tom (author)
- Univ Melbourne, Dept Econ, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
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Borsting, CK (author)
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Chopik, WJ (author)
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Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.;Northumbria Univ, Dept Psychol, Northumbria, England. (creator_code:org_t)
- 2023-02-09
- 2023
- English.
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
- Related links:
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
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- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)
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Grossmann, Igor
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Rotella, Amanda ...
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Hutcherson, Cend ...
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Sharpinskyi, Kon ...
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Varnum, Michael ...
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Achter, Sebastia ...
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Dhami, Mandeep
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Guo, Xinqi Evie
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Kara-Yakoubian, ...
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Mandel, David
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Raes, Louis
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Tay, Louis
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Vie, Aymeric
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Wagner, Lisa
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Adamkovic, Matus
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Arami, Arash
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Arriaga, Patrici ...
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Bandara, Kasun
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Banik, Gabriel
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Bartos, Frantise ...
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Baskin, Ernest
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Bergmeir, Christ ...
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Bialek, Michal K ...
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Borsting, Caroli ...
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Browne, Dillon M ...
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Caruso, Eugene
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Chen, Rong
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Chie, Bin-Tzong ...
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Chopik, William ...
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Collins, Robert
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Cong, Chin Wen G ...
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Conway, Lucian
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Davis, Matthew V ...
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Day, Martin A.
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Dhaliwal, Nathan ...
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Durham, Justin
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Dziekan, Martyna ...
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Elbaek, Christia ...
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Shuman, Eric
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Fabrykant, Marha ...
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Firat, Mustafa T ...
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Fong, Geoffrey A ...
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Frimer, Jeremy M ...
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Gallegos, Jonath ...
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Goldberg, Simon
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Gollwitzer, Anto ...
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Goyal, Julia
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Graf-Vlachy, Lor ...
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Gronlund, Scott
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Hafenbraedl, Seb ...
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Hartanto, Andree ...
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Hirshberg, Matth ...
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Hornsey, Matthew
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Howe, Piers D. L ...
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Izadi, Anoosha
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Jaeger, Bastian
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Kacmar, Pavol
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Kim, Yeun Joon
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Krenzler, Ruslan ...
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Lannin, Daniel
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Lin, Hung-Wen
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Lou, Nigel Manto ...
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Lua, Verity Y. Q ...
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Lukaszewski, Aar ...
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Ly, Albert R.
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Madan, Christoph ...
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Maier, Maximilia ...
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Majeed, Nadyanna ...
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March, David A.
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Marsh, Abigail
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Misiak, Michal
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Myrseth, Kristia ...
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Napan, Jaime
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Nicholas, Jonath ...
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Nikolopoulos, Ko ...
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Otterbring, Tobi ...
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Paruzel-Czachura ...
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Pauer, Shiva
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Protzko, John
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Raffaelli, Quent ...
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Ropovik, Ivan
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Ross, Robert M.
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Roth, Yefim
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Roysamb, Espen
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Schnabel, Landon
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Schuetz, Astrid
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Seifert, Matthia ...
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Sevincer, A. T.
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Sherman, Garrick ...
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Simonsson, Otto
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Sung, Ming-Chien
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Tai, Chung-Ching
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Talhelm, Thomas
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Teachman, Bethan ...
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Tetlock, Philip ...
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Thomakos, Dimitr ...
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Tse, Dwight C. K ...
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Twardus, Oliver ...
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Tybur, Joshua M.
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Ungar, Lyle
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Vandermeulen, Da ...
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Vaughan Williams ...
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Vosgerichian, Hr ...
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Wang, Qi
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Wang, Ke
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Whiting, Mark E.
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Wollbrant, Conny ...
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Yang, Tao
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Yogeeswaran, Kum ...
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Yoon, Sangsuk
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Alves, Ventura R ...
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Andrews-Hanna, J ...
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Bloom, Paul A.
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Boyles, Anthony
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Charis, Loo
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Choi, Mingyeong
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Darling-Hammond, ...
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Ferguson, Z. E.
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Kaiser, Cheryl R ...
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Karg, Simon T.
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Ortega, Alberto ...
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Mahoney, Lori
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Marsh, Melvin S.
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Martinie, Marcel ...
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Michaels, Eli K.
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Millroth, Philip
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Naqvi, Jeanean B ...
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Ng, Weiting
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Rutledge, Robb B ...
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Slattery, Peter
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Smiley, Adam H.
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Strijbis, Oliver
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Sznycer, Daniel
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Tsukayama, Eli
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van Loon, Austin
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Voelkel, Jan G.
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Wienk, Margaux N ...
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Wilkening, Tom
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Borsting, CK
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Chopik, WJ
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