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Insights into the a...
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Grossmann, IgorDepartment of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
(author)
Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- Article/chapterEnglish2023
Publisher, publication year, extent ...
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2023-02-09
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Springer Nature,2023
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printrdacarrier
Numbers
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LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:uu-512888
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https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-512888URI
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1DOI
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http://kipublications.ki.se/Default.aspx?queryparsed=id:152036868URI
Supplementary language notes
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Language:English
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Summary in:English
Part of subdatabase
Classification
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Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
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Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype
Notes
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How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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Rotella, Amanda A.Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.;Northumbria Univ, Dept Psychol, Northumbria, England.
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Hutcherson, CendriUniv Toronto Scarborough, Dept Psychol, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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Sharpinskyi, KonstantynUniv Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
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Varnum, Michael E. W.Arizona State Univ, Dept Psychol, Tempe, AZ USA.
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Achter, Sebastian K.Hamburg Univ Technol, Inst Management Accounting & Simulat, Hamburg, Germany.;Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.;Aberystwyth Univ, Dept Psychol, Aberystwyth, Wales.
(author)
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Dhami, MandeepMiddlesex Univ London, Dept Psychol, London, England.
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Guo, Xinqi EvieUniv Calif San Diego, Dept Expt Psychol, San Diego, CA USA.
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Kara-Yakoubian, Mane R.Toronto Metropolitan Univ, Dept Psychol, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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Mandel, DavidDef Res & Dev Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada.;York Univ, Dept Psychol, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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Raes, LouisTilburg Univ, Dept Econ, Tilburg, Netherlands.
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Tay, LouisPurdue Univ, Dept Psychol Sci, W Lafayette, IN USA.
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Vie, AymericUniv Oxford, Math Inst, Oxford, England.;Univ Oxford, Inst New Econ Thinking, Oxford, England.
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Wagner, LisaUniv Zurich, Jacobs Ctr Prod Youth Dev, Zurich, Switzerland.
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Adamkovic, MatusUniv Presov, Inst Psychol, Presov, Slovakia.;Slovak Acad Sci, Inst Social Sci, CSPS, Bratislava, Slovakia.;Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.
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Arami, ArashUniv Waterloo, Dept Mech & Mechatron Engn, Waterloo, ON, Canada.;Univ Hlth Network, Toronto Rehabil Inst KITE, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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Arriaga, PatriciaIscte Univ, CIS, Inst Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal.
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Bandara, KasunUniv Melbourne, Melbourne Ctr Data Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
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Banik, GabrielUniv Presov, Inst Psychol, Presov, Slovakia.
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Bartos, FrantisekUniv Amsterdam, Fac Social & Behav Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
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Baskin, ErnestSt Josephs Univ, Haub Sch Business, Dept Food Mkt, Philadelphia, PA USA.
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Bergmeir, ChristophMonash Univ, Dept Data Sci & Artificial Intelligence, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
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Bialek, Michal K.Univ Wroclaw, Inst Psychol, Wroclaw, Poland.
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Borsting, Caroline T.Aarhus Univ, Dept Management, Aarhus, Denmark.
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Browne, Dillon M.Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
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Caruso, EugeneUniv Calif Los Angeles, Anderson Sch Management, Los Angeles, CA USA.
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Chen, RongDominican Univ Calif, Dept Psychol, San Rafael, CA USA.
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Chie, Bin-Tzong J.Tamkang Univ, Dept Ind Econ, New Taipei City, Taiwan.
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Chopik, William N.Michigan State Univ, Dept Psychol, E Lansing, MI USA.
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Collins, RobertDef Res & Dev Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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Cong, Chin Wen G.
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Conway, LucianGrove City Coll, Psychol Dept, Grove City, PA USA.
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Davis, Matthew V.Siena Coll, Dept Econ, Loudonville, NY USA.
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Day, Martin A.Mem Univ Newfoundland, Dept Psychol, St John, NF, Canada.
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Dhaliwal, Nathan D.Univ British Columbia, UBC Sauder Sch Business, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
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Durham, JustinUniv Oklahoma, Dept Psychol, Norman, OK USA.
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Dziekan, Martyna T.Adam Mickiewicz Univ, Fac Psychol & Cognit Sci, Poznan, Poland.
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Elbaek, ChristianAarhus Univ, Dept Management, Aarhus, Denmark.
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Shuman, EricUniv Groningen, Dept Psychol, Groningen, Netherlands.
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Fabrykant, MarharytaHSE Univ, Expert Inst, Lab Comparat Studies Mass Consciousness, Moscow, Russia.;Belarusian State Univ, Fac Philosophy & Social Sci, Minsk, BELARUS.
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Firat, Mustafa T.Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Dept Sociol, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
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Fong, Geoffrey A.Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.;Ontario Inst Canc Res, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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Frimer, Jeremy M.Univ Winnipeg, Dept Psychol, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.
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Gallegos, Jonathan B.Univ Washington, Dept Psychol, Seattle, WA USA.
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Goldberg, SimonUniv Wisconsin Madison, Dept Counseling Psychol, Madison, WI USA.
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Gollwitzer, AntonBI Norwegian Business Sch, Dept Leadership & Org Behav, Oslo, Norway.;Max Planck Inst Human Dev, Ctr Adapt Rat, Berlin, Germany.
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Goyal, JuliaUniv Waterloo, Sch Publ Hlth Sci, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
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Graf-Vlachy, Lorenz D.TU Dortmund Univ, Dortmund, Germany.;ESCP Business Sch, Paris, France.
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Gronlund, ScottUniv Oklahoma, Dept Psychol, Norman, OK USA.
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Hafenbraedl, SebastianIESE Business Sch, Barcelona, Spain.
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Hartanto, Andree J.Singapore Management Univ, Sch Social Sci, Singapore, Singapore.
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Hirshberg, Matthew J.Univ Wisconsin Madison, Ctr Hlth Minds, Madison, WI USA.
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Hornsey, MatthewUniv Queensland, Business Sch, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
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Howe, Piers D. L.Univ Melbourne, Melbourne Sch Psychol Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
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Izadi, AnooshaUniv Massachusetts Dartmouth, Dept Mkt, Dartmouth, MA USA.
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Jaeger, BastianVrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Expt & Appl Psychol, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
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Kacmar, PavolPavol Jozef Safarik Univ Kosice, Fac Arts, Dept Psychol, Kosice, Slovakia.
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Kim, Yeun JoonUniv Cambridge, Cambridge Judge Business Sch, Cambridge, England.
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Krenzler, Ruslan G.Hermes Germany GmbH, Hamburg, Germany.;Univ Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.
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Lannin, DanielIllinois State Univ, Dept Psychol, Normal, IL USA.
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Lin, Hung-WenNatl Pingtung Univ, Dept Business Adm, Pingtung, Taiwan.
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Lou, Nigel MantouUniv Victoria, Dept Psychol, Victoria, BC, Canada.;Univ Victoria, Ctr Youth & Soc, Victoria, BC, Canada.
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Lua, Verity Y. Q. W.Singapore Management Univ, Sch Social Sci, Singapore, Singapore.
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Lukaszewski, Aaron L.Calif State Univ, Dept Psychol, Fullerton, CA USA.;Calif State Univ, Ctr Study Human Nat, Fullerton, CA USA.
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Ly, Albert R.Loma Linda Univ, Dept Psychol, Loma Linda, CA USA.
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Madan, ChristopherUniv Nottingham, Nottingham, England.
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Maier, Maximilian M.UCL, Dept Expt Psychol, London, England.
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Majeed, Nadyanna S.Singapore Management Univ, Singapore, Singapore.
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March, David A.Florida State Univ, Dept Psychol, Tallahassee, FL USA.
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Marsh, AbigailGeorgetown Univ, Dept Psychol, Washington, DC USA.
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Misiak, MichalUniv Wroclaw, Inst Psychol, Wroclaw, Poland.;Univ Oxford, Sch Anthropol, Oxford, England.;Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.
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Myrseth, Kristian Ove R. M.Univ York, Sch Business & Soc, York, England.
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Napan, JaimeLoma Linda Univ, Dept Psychol, Loma Linda, CA USA.
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Nicholas, JonathanColumbia Univ, Dept Psychol, New York, NY USA.
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Nikolopoulos, KonstantinosUniv Durham, IHRR Forecasting Lab, Durham, England.
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Otterbring, TobiasUniv Agder, Sch Business & Law, Dept Management, Kristiansand, Norway.;Inst Retail Econ, Stockholm, Sweden.
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Paruzel-Czachura, MariolaUniv Silesia Katowice, Inst Psychol, Katowice, Poland.;Univ Penn, Penn Ctr Neuroaesthet, Dept Neurol, Philadelphia, PA USA.
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Pauer, ShivaUniv Amsterdam, Fac Social & Behav Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
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Protzko, JohnCent Connecticut State Univ, New Britain, CT USA.
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Raffaelli, QuentinUniv Arizona, Dept Psychol, Tucson, AZ USA.
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Ropovik, IvanCharles Univ Prague, Inst Res & Dev Educ, Fac Educ, Prague, Czech Republic.;Univ Presov, Fac Educ, Presov, Slovakia.
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Ross, Robert M.Macquarie Univ, Sch Psychol, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
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Roth, YefimUniv Haifa, Dept Human Serv, Haifa, Israel.
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Roysamb, EspenUniv Oslo, Promenta Ctr, Dept Psychol, Oslo, Norway.
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Schnabel, LandonCornell Univ, Dept Sociol, Ithaca, NY USA.
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Schuetz, AstridUniv Bamberg, Inst Psychol, Bamberg, Germany.
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Seifert, MatthiasIE Univ, IE Business Sch, Madrid, Spain.
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Sevincer, A. T.Univ Hamburg, Fac Psychol & Human Movement Sci, Hamburg, Germany.
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Sherman, Garrick T.Univ Penn, Dept Comp & Informat Sci, Philadelphia, PA USA.
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Simonsson, OttoKarolinska Institutet
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Sung, Ming-ChienUniv Southampton, Dept Decis Analyt & Risk, Southampton, England.
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Tai, Chung-ChingUniv Southampton, Dept Decis Analyt & Risk, Southampton, England.
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Talhelm, ThomasUniv Chicago, Booth Sch Business, Chicago, IL USA.
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Teachman, Bethany A.Univ Virginia, Dept Psychol, Charlottesville, VA USA.
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Tetlock, Philip E.Univ Penn, Psychol Dept, Philadelphia, PA USA.;Univ Penn, Wharton Sch Business, Philadelphia, PA USA.
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Thomakos, DimitriosNatl & Kapodistrian Univ Athens, Dept Econ, Athens, Greece.
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Tse, Dwight C. K.Univ Strathclyde, Sch Psychol Sci & Hlth, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland.
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Twardus, Oliver J.Univ Guelph, Dept Psychol, Guelph, ON, Canada.
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Tybur, Joshua M.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Expt & Appl Psychol, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
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Ungar, LyleUniv Penn, Dept Comp & Informat Sci, Philadelphia, PA USA.
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Vandermeulen, DaanHebrew Univ Jerusalem, Psychol Dept, Jerusalem, Israel.
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Vaughan Williams, LeightonNottingham Trent Univ, Dept Econ, Nottingham, England.
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Vosgerichian, Hrag A.Northwestern Univ, Dept Management & Org, Evanston, IL USA.
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Wang, QiCornell Univ, Coll Human Ecol, Ithaca, NY USA.
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Wang, KeHarvard Univ, Harvard Kennedy Sch, Cambridge, MA USA.
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Whiting, Mark E.Univ Penn, Comp & Informat Sci, Philadelphia, PA USA.;Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, Operat Informat & Decis Dept, Philadelphia, PA USA.
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Wollbrant, Conny E.Univ St Andrews, Sch Econ & Finance, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland.
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Yang, TaoUniv North Carolina Wilmington, Cameron Sch Business, Dept Management, Wilmington, NC USA.
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Yogeeswaran, KumarUniv Canterbury, Sch Psychol Speech & Hearing, Christchurch, New Zealand.
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Yoon, SangsukUniv Dayton, Dept Mkt, Dayton, OH USA.
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Alves, Ventura R.Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.;ISG Univ Lusofona, Lisbon, Portugal.
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Andrews-Hanna, Jessica R.Univ Oxford, Museum Ethnog, Oxford, England.;Univ Arizona, Dept Psychol, Tucson, AZ USA.;Univ Arizona, Cognit Sci, Tucson, AZ USA.
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Bloom, Paul A.Columbia Univ, Dept Psychol, New York, NY USA.
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Boyles, AnthonyEphemer Al, Atlanta, GA USA.
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Charis, LooBoston Univ, Questrom Sch Business, Boston, MA USA.
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Choi, MingyeongPusan Natl Univ, Inst Social Sci Res, Pusan, South Korea.
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Darling-Hammond, SeanUniv Calif Los Angeles, Fielding Sch Publ Hlth, Los Angeles, CA USA.
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Ferguson, Z. E.Univ Washington, Psychol Dept, Seattle, WA USA.
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Kaiser, Cheryl R.Univ Washington, Dept Psychol, Seattle, WA USA.
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Karg, Simon T.Aarhus Univ, Dept Polit Sci, Aarhus, Denmark.
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Ortega, Alberto LopezVrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Expt & Appl Psychol, Amsterdam, Netherlands.;Aberystwyth Univ, Dept Psychol, Aberystwyth, Wales.
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Mahoney, LoriWright State Univ, Coll Sci & Math, Fairborn, OH USA.
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Marsh, Melvin S.Georgia Southern Univ, Dept Psychol, Statesboro, GA USA.
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Martinie, Marcellin F. R. C.Univ Melbourne, Melbourne Sch Psychol Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
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Michaels, Eli K.Univ Calif Berkeley, Sch Publ Hlth, Div Epidemiol, Berkeley, CA USA.
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Millroth, PhilipUppsala universitet,Institutionen för psykologi(Swepub:uu)phimi602
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Naqvi, Jeanean B.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Psychol, Pittsburgh, PA USA.
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Ng, WeitingSingapore Univ Social Sci, Sch Humanities & Behav Sci, Singapore, Singapore.
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Rutledge, Robb B.Yale Univ, Dept Psychol, New Haven, CT USA.
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Slattery, PeterMonash Univ, Behav Works Australia, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
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Smiley, Adam H.Univ Washington, Dept Psychol, Seattle, WA USA.
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Strijbis, OliverUniv Zurich, Inst Polit Sci, Zurich, Switzerland.
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Sznycer, DanielOklahoma State Univ, Dept Psychol, Stillwater, OK USA.
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Tsukayama, EliUniv Hawaii West Oahu, Dept Business Adm, Kapolei, HI USA.
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van Loon, AustinStanford Univ, Dept Sociol, Stanford, CA USA.
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Voelkel, Jan G.Stanford Univ, Dept Sociol, Stanford, CA USA.
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Wienk, Margaux N. A.Columbia Univ, Dept Psychol, New York, NY USA.
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Wilkening, TomUniv Melbourne, Dept Econ, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
(author)
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Borsting, CK
(author)
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Chopik, WJ
(author)
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Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.Univ Waterloo, Dept Psychol, Waterloo, ON, Canada.;Northumbria Univ, Dept Psychol, Northumbria, England.
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In:Nature Human Behaviour: Springer Nature7, s. 484-5012397-3374
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