Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts

Eliasson, JonasKTH,Centrum för transportstudier, CTS,Centre for Transport Studies, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden (författare)

QC 20130830. Updated from submitted to published.
QC 20130830. Updated from submitted to published.Funded by Vinnova.
This paper compares forecast effects of the Stockholm congestion charges with actual outcomes. The most important concerns during the design of the congestion charging scheme were the traffic reduction in bottlenecks, the increase in public transport ridership, the decrease of vehicle kilometres in the city centre, and potential traffic effects on circumferential roads. Comparisons of forecasts and actual outcomes show that the transport model predicted all of these factors well enough to allow planners to draw correct conclusions regarding the design and preparations for the scheme. The one major shortcoming was that the static assignment network model was unable to predict the substantial reductions of queuing times. We conclude that the transport model worked well enough to be useful as decision support, performing considerably better than unaided "experts' judgments", but that results must be interpreted taking the model's limitations into account. The positive experiences from the Stockholm congestion charges hence seem to be transferable to other cities in the sense that if a charging system is forecast to have beneficial effects on congestion, then this is most likely true.

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER Samhällsbyggnadsteknik Transportteknik och logistik hsv//swe
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY Civil Engineering Transport Systems and Logistics hsv//eng
Congestion charging
Forecast
Journey time
Estimation
Congestion relief
Public transport
Bottleneck
Decision process
22 Road: Traffic control and traffic information
22 Road: Traffic control and traffic information
02 Road: Economics
02 Road: Economics

Börjesson, Maria,1974-KTH,Centrum för transportstudier, CTS,Centre for Transport Studies, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden(Swepub:liu)marbo25 (författare)
van Amelsfort, DirkWSP Analysis & Strategy, Stockholm, Sweden (författare)
Brundell-Freij, KarinWSP Analysis & Strategy, Stockholm, Sweden (författare)
Engelson, LeonidKTH,Transport- och lokaliseringsanalys,Centrum för transportstudier, CTS,Centre for Transport Studies, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden; WSP Analysis & Strategy, Stockholm, Sweden(Swepub:liu)leoen78 (författare)
KTHCentrum för transportstudier, CTS (creator_code:org_t)

Ingår i:Transportation Research Part A: Elsevier BV52, s. 34-460965-85641879-2375

Av författaren/redakt...: Eliasson, Jonas; Börjesson, Maria ...; van Amelsfort, D ...; Brundell-Freij, ...; Engelson, Leonid

Om ämnet

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER: TEKNIK OCH TEKNO ...; och Samhällsbyggnads ...; och Transportteknik ...

Av lärosätet: VTI - Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut; Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan; Linköpings universitet

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