Estimating Traffic Demand Risk : A Multiscale Analysis

• This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the traffic demand risk associated with transportation. Using mathematical properties of wavelets, we develop a statistical measure of traffic demand sensitivity with respect to GDP. This measure can be adapted in a flexible way to capture risk levels relevant for different investment horizons. We demonstrate the timescale decomposition of risk with Swedish traffic demand data for 1950-2005. In general, rail transport shows a stronger co-movement with GDP than road transport. Moreover, we examine the volatility exhibited by traffic demand. Our findings suggest that rail investments are more risky than road investments. Since the findings can be used for optimal investment timing and for choice between public investment alternatives, they are deemed important for public policy in general.

Ämnesord

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Ekonomi och näringsliv -- Nationalekonomi (hsv//swe)

SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Economics and Business -- Economics (hsv//eng)

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik -- Transportteknik och logistik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Civil Engineering -- Transport Systems and Logistics (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Transport infrastructure

Investment

Risk

Economics

Growth rate

Fleet of vehicles

Ton kilometer

Mathematical model

Correlation (math

stat)

Road transport

Rail bound transport

Railway: Economics

Railway: Economics

Road: Economics

Road: Economics

Economics

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)

art (ämneskategori)