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Predictors of morta...
Predictors of mortality and morbidity in patients with chronic heart failure
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Pocock, S. J. (author)
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Wang, D. (author)
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Pfeffer, M. A. (author)
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Yusuf, S. (author)
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McMurray, J. J. (author)
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- Swedberg, Karl, 1944 (author)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för akut och kardiovaskulär medicin,Institute of Medicine, Department of Emergeny and Cardiovascular Medicine
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Ostergren, J. (author)
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Michelson, E. L. (author)
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Pieper, K. S. (author)
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Granger, C. B. (author)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2006
- 2006
- English.
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In: Eur Heart J. - 0195-668X .- 0195-668X. ; 27:1, s. 65-75
- Related links:
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https://gup.ub.gu.se...
Abstract
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- AIMS: We aimed to develop prognostic models for patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated data from 7599 patients in the CHARM programme with CHF with and without left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Multi-variable Cox regression models were developed using baseline candidate variables to predict all-cause mortality (n=1831 deaths) and the composite of cardiovascular (CV) death and heart failure (HF) hospitalization (n=2460 patients with events). Final models included 21 predictor variables for CV death/HF hospitalization and for death. The three most powerful predictors were older age (beginning >60 years), diabetes, and lower left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) (beginning <45%). Other independent predictors that increased risk included higher NYHA class, cardiomegaly, prior HF hospitalization, male sex, lower body mass index, and lower diastolic blood pressure. The model accurately stratified actual 2-year mortality from 2.5 to 44% for the lowest to highest deciles of predicted risk. CONCLUSION: In a large contemporary CHF population, including patients with preserved and decreased left ventricular systolic function, routine clinical variables can discriminate risk regardless of EF. Diabetes was found to be a surprisingly strong independent predictor. These models can stratify risk and help define how patient characteristics relate to clinical course.
Subject headings
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Kardiologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Cardiac and Cardiovascular Systems (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- Adult
- Age Distribution
- Aged
- Cause of Death
- Chronic Disease
- Heart Failure/*mortality
- Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data
- Humans
- Middle Aged
- Morbidity
- Prognosis
- Proportional Hazards Models
- Risk Factors
- Survival Analysis
- Sweden/epidemiology
- Ventricular Dysfunction
- Left/mortality
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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- By the author/editor
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Pocock, S. J.
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Wang, D.
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Pfeffer, M. A.
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Yusuf, S.
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McMurray, J. J.
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Swedberg, Karl, ...
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show more...
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Ostergren, J.
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Michelson, E. L.
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Pieper, K. S.
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Granger, C. B.
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show less...
- About the subject
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- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES
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MEDICAL AND HEAL ...
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and Clinical Medicin ...
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and Cardiac and Card ...
- Articles in the publication
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Eur Heart J
- By the university
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University of Gothenburg