Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting

• Tropical cyclones are large-scale low-pressure systems that form over warm tropical and subtropical waters. These low-pressure systems are characterized by high-speed surface wind circulation, rotating spirals of thick clouds, heavy rain, and surges, the water masses sometimes reaching a height of 10 meters when they hit a coastline. Tropical cyclones are one of the most destructive meteorological disasters due to their high damaging power, both through strong winds and flooding. To minimize economic loss and to save human lives, meteorologists have developed a range of techniques for forecasting tropical cyclone track. The most common techniques utilize statistical and mathematical equations to integrate the movement pattern of historical tropical cyclones with the recently observed movement of the current tropical cyclone. Alternatively, forecasting techniques can focus on the forces responsible for tropical cyclone motion to produce a cyclone track forecast. Today, improved cyclone track forecasting techniques have enabled meteorological offices to warn residents in the affected areas before a tropical cyclone impact, and help to reduce the losses created by them.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Tropical cyclone motion

track prediction techniques

track prediction accuracy

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