Linking cod (Gadus morhua) and climate: investigating variability in Irish Sea cod recruitment

How climatic variability and anthropogenic pressures interact to influence recruitment is a key factor in achieving sustainable resource management. However, the combined effects of these pressures can make it difficult to detect non-stationary interactions or shifts in the relationships with recruitment. Here we examine the links between climate and Irish Sea cod recruitment during a period of declining spawning stock biomass (SSB). Specifically, we test for a shift in the relationship between recruitment, SSB and climate by comparing an additive (generalized additive model, GAM) and non-additive threshold model (TGAM). The relationship between recruitment success, SSB and the climatic driver, sea surface temperature, was best described by the TGAM, with a threshold identified between recruitment and SSB at approximately 7900t. The analysis suggests a threshold shift in the relationship between recruitment and SSB in Irish Sea cod, with cod recruitment being more sensitive to climatic variability during the recent low SSB regime.

Cardinale, MassimilianoSwedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Institutionen för akvatiska resurser,Department of Aquatic Resources(Swepub:slu)49653 (författare)
Gowen, R. J. (författare)
Bartolino, Valerio,1979Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för geovetenskaper,Department of Earth Sciences,Institutionen för akvatiska resurser,Department of Aquatic Resources,University of Gothenburg(Swepub:slu)47564 (författare)
Sveriges lantbruksuniversitetInstitutionen för akvatiska resurser (creator_code:org_t)
Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet

Av författaren/redakt...: Beggs, S. E.; Cardinale, Massi ...; Gowen, R. J.; Bartolino, Valer ...

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