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Modelling the Futur...
Modelling the Future: System Dynamics in the Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma Care Pathway
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- Claeson, Magdalena, 1976 (författare)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Avdelningen för dermatologi och venereologi,Institute of Clinical Sciences, Department of Dermatology and Venereology,University of Gothenburg
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- Hallberg, Stefan, 1955 (författare)
- Chalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology
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- Holmström, Paul (författare)
- Chalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology
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- Wennberg, Ann-Marie, 1956 (författare)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Avdelningen för dermatologi och venereologi,Institute of Clinical Sciences, Department of Dermatology and Venereology
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- Gonzalez, Helena, 1971 (författare)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Avdelningen för dermatologi och venereologi,Institute of Clinical Sciences, Department of Dermatology and Venereology,University of Gothenburg
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- Paoli, John, 1975 (författare)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Avdelningen för dermatologi och venereologi,Institute of Clinical Sciences, Department of Dermatology and Venereology,University of Gothenburg
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- Rosen, Arne, 1939 (författare)
- Göteborgs universitet,University of Gothenburg
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(creator_code:org_t)
- Medical Journals Sweden AB, 2016
- 2016
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Acta dermato-venereologica. - : Medical Journals Sweden AB. - 1651-2057 .- 0001-5555. ; 96:2, s. 181-185
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Incidence rates for cutaneous malignant melanoma are increasing worldwide. Estimates of the future number of melanoma cases are important for strategic planning of the care pathway. The aim of this study was to use system dynamics modelling to evaluate the long-term effects of changes in incidence, population growth and preventive interventions. Historical data on invasive melanoma cases in Western Sweden from 1990 to 2006 were obtained. Using computer simulation software, a model estimating the accumulated number of melanoma cases for 2014 to 2023 was developed. Five future scenarios were designed: stable incidence, business-as-usual, 25% reduced patient's delay, 50% reduced doctor's delay, and a combination of the last 2, called improved overall secondary prevention. After 10 years, improved overall secondary prevention would have resulted in a 42% decrease in melanomas >4 mm and a 10% increase in melanomas ≤1 mm, compared with business-as-usual. System dynamics is a valuable tool, which can help policymakers choose the preventive interventions with the greatest impact.
Ämnesord
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Dermatologi och venereologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Dermatology and Venereal Diseases (hsv//eng)
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Cancer och onkologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Cancer and Oncology (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- cutaneous malignant melanoma
- system dynamics; simulation
- care pathway; doctor's delay
- patient's delay
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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