Phylogenetic confidence intervals for the optimal trait value

• We consider a stochastic evolutionary model for a phenotype developing amongst n related species with unknown phylogeny. The unknown tree is modelled by a Yule process conditioned on n contemporary nodes. The trait value is assumed to evolve along lineages as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. As a result, the trait values of the n species form a sample with dependent observations. We establish three limit theorems for the sample mean corresponding to three domains for the adaptation rate. In the case of fast adaptation, we show that for large n the normalized sample mean is approximately normally distributed. Using these limit theorems, we develop novel confidence interval formulae for the optimal trait value.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics (hsv//eng)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Biologi -- Evolutionsbiologi (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Biological Sciences -- Evolutionary Biology (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Central limit theorem

conditionedYule process

macroevolution

martingales

Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

phylogenetics

phylogenetics

Mathematical Statistics

Statistics

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