Prediction of clinical progression after radical prostatectomy in a nationwide population-based cohort

• Objective: The aim of this study was to create a model for predicting progression-free survival after radical prostatectomy for localized prostate cancer. Material and methods: The risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR) was modelled in a cohort of 3452 men aged 70 years or younger who were primarily treated with radical prostatectomy after being diagnosed between 2003 and 2006 with localized prostate cancer [clinical stage T1c-T2, Gleason score 5-10, N0/NX, M0/MX, prostate-specific antigen (PSA)<20 ng/ml]. The cohort was split into two: one cohort for model development (n = 3452) and one for validation (n = 1762). BCR was defined as two increasing PSA values of at least 0.2 ng/ml, initiation of secondary therapy, distant metastases or death from prostate cancer. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression was applied, predictive performance was assessed using the bootstrap resampling technique to calculate the c index, and calibration of the model was evaluated by comparing predicted and observed Kaplan-Meier 1 year BCR. Results: The overall 5 year progression-free survival was 83% after a median follow-up time of 6.8 years in the development cohort and 7.3 years in the validation cohort. The final model included T stage, PSA level, primary and secondary Gleason grade, and number of positive and negative biopsies. The c index for discrimination between high and low risk of recurrence was 0.68. The probability of progression-free survival ranged from 22% to 97% over the range of risk scores in the study population. Conclusions: This model is based on nationwide population-based data and can be used with a fair predictive accuracy to guide decisions on clinical follow-up after prostatectomy. An online calculator for convenient clinical use of the model is available at www.npcr.se/nomogram

Ämnesord

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Urologi och njurmedicin (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Urology and Nephrology (hsv//eng)

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Cancer och onkologi (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Cancer and Oncology (hsv//eng)

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Kirurgi (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Surgery (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Biochemical recurrence

nomogram

predictive models

prostate cancer

radical prostatectomy

university-of-california

risk-assessment score

biochemical recurrence

preoperative nomogram

external validation

10-year probability

disease

recurrence

cancer recurrence

san-francisco

sweden

Urology & Nephrology

Biochemical recurrence

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)

art (ämneskategori)