Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

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Fullman, N. (author)

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Article/chapterEnglish2017

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2017

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LIBRIS-ID:oai:gup.ub.gu.se/257841
https://gup.ub.gu.se/publication/257841URI
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-XDOI
https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-332135URI
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/27feb8bd-a70d-4e35-853c-21ec7759eae1URI
http://kipublications.ki.se/Default.aspx?queryparsed=id:136639155URI

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Language:English

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Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype

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Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.For complete list of authors: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X
Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Subject headings and genre

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP Hälsovetenskap hsv//swe
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES Health Sciences hsv//eng
MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP Hälsovetenskap Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi hsv//swe
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES Health Sciences Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology hsv//eng
development assistance
prepaid private
coverage
mortality
care
40-percent
government
systems
mexico
china
General & Internal Medicine

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Ahmad Kiadaliri, AliasgharLund University,Lunds universitet,Ortopedi, Lund,Sektion III,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Lund,Medicinska fakulteten,Lund OsteoArthritis Division - Clinical Epidemiology Unit,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Orthopaedics (Lund),Section III,Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund,Faculty of Medicine,Lund University Research Groups(Swepub:lu)med-ald (author)
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Stokes, M. A. (author)
Strub, B. (author)
Sufiyan, M. B. (author)
Abdulkader, R. S. (author)
Sunguya, B. F. (author)
Sur, P. J. (author)
Swaminathan, S. (author)
Sykes, B. L. (author)
Sylte, D. O. (author)
Szoeke, C. E. I. (author)
Tabares-Seisdedos, R. (author)
Tadakamadla, S. K. (author)
Tandon, N. (author)
Tao, T. C. (author)
Tarekegn, Y. L. (author)
Tavakkoli, M. (author)
Taveira, N. (author)
Tegegne, T. K. (author)
Shifa, G. T. (author)
Terkawi, A. S. (author)
Tessema, G. A. (author)
Thakur, J. S. (author)
Thankappan, K. R. (author)
Thrift, A. G. (author)
Tiruye, T. Y. (author)
Tobe-Gai, R. (author)
Topor-Madry, R. (author)
Torre, A. (author)
Tortajada, M. (author)
Tran, B. X. (author)
Troeger, C. (author)
Truelsen, T. (author)
Tsoi, D. (author)
Tuem, K. B. (author)
Tuzcu, E. M. (author)
Tyrovolas, S. (author)
Ukwaja, K. N. (author)
Uneke, C. J. (author)
Updike, R. (author)
Uthman, O. A. (author)
van Boven, J. F. M. (author)
van Donkelaar, A. (author)
Varughese, S. (author)
Vasankari, T. (author)
Venketasubramanian, N. (author)
Vidavalur, R. (author)
Violante, F. S. (author)
Vladimirov, S. K. (author)
Vlassov, V. V. (author)
Vollset, S. E. (author)
Vos, T. (author)
Wadilo, F. (author)
Wakayo, T. (author)
Wallin, M. T. (author)
Wang, Y. P. (author)
Weichenthal, S. (author)
Weiderpass, E.Karolinska Institutet (author)
Weintraub, R. G. (author)
Weiss, D. J. (author)
Werdecker, A. (author)
Westerman, R. (author)
Whiteford, H. A. (author)
Wijeratne, T. (author)
Wiysonge, C. S. (author)
Woldeyes, B. G. (author)
Wolfe, C. D. A. (author)
Woodbrook, R. (author)
Xavier, D. (author)
Xu, G. L. (author)
Yadgir, S. (author)
Yakob, B. (author)
Yan, L. L. J. (author)
Yano, Y. (author)
Yaseri, M. (author)
Ye, P. P. (author)
Yimam, H. H. (author)
Yip, P. (author)
Yonemoto, N. (author)
Yoon, S. J. (author)
Yotebieng, M. (author)
Younis, M. Z. (author)
Zaidi, Z. (author)
Zaki, M. E. S. (author)
Zavala-Arciniega, L. (author)
Zhang, X. Y. (author)
Zipkin, B. (author)
Zodpey, S. (author)
Lim, S. S. (author)
Murray, C. J. L. (author)
Gbd Sdg Collaborators, Gbd Sdg Collaborators (author)
Karolinska InstitutetOrtopedi, Lund (creator_code:org_t)

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By the author/editor: Fullman, N.; Barber, R. M.; Abajobir, A. A.; Abate, K. H.; Abbafati, C.; Abbas, K. M.; show more...; Abd-Allah, F.; Abdulle, A. M.; Abera, S. F.; Aboyans, V.; Abu-Raddad, L. J ...; Abu-Rmeileh, N. ...; Adedeji, I. A.; Adetokunboh, O.; Afshin, A.; Agrawal, A.; Agrawal, S.; Ahmad Kiadaliri, ...; Ahmadieh, H.; Ahmed, M. B.; Aichour, A. N.; Aichour, I.; Aichour, M. T. E ...; Aiyar, S.; Akinyemi, R. O.; Akseer, N.; Al-Aly, Z.; Alam, K.; Alam, N.; Alasfoor, D.; Alene, K. A.; Alizadeh-Navaei, ...; Alkerwi, A.; Alla, F.; Allebeck, P.; Allen, C.; Al-Raddadi, R.; Alsharif, U.; Altirkawi, K. A.; Alvis-Guzman, N.; Amare, A. T.; Amini, E.; Ammar, W.; Antonio, C. A. T ...; Ansari, H.; Anwari, P.; Arora, M.; Artaman, A.; Aryal, K. K.; Asayesh, H.; Asgedom, S. W.; Assadi, R.; Atey, T. M.; Atre, S. R.; Avila-Burgos, L.; Avokpaho, Efga; Awasthi, A.; Azzopardi, P.; Bacha, U.; Badawi, A.; Balakrishnan, K.; Bannick, M. S.; Barac, A.; Barker-Collo, S. ...; Barnighausen, T.; Barrero, L. H.; Basu, S.; Battle, K. E.; Baune, B. T.; Beardsley, J.; Bedi, N.; Bejot, Y.; Bell, M. L.; Bennett, D. A.; Bennett, J. R.; Bensenor, I. M.; Berhane, A.; Berhe, D. F.; Bernabe, E.; Betsu, B. D.; Beuran, M.; Beyene, A. S.; Bhansali, A.; Bhatt, S.; Bhutta, Z. A.; Bikbov, B.; Bilal, A. I.; Birungi, C.; Biryukov, S.; Bizuayehu, H. M.; Blosser, C. D.; Boneya, D. J.; Bose, D.; Bou-Orm, I. R.; Brauer, M.; Breitborde, N. J ...; Brugha, T. S.; Bulto, L. N. B.; Butt, Z. A.; Cahuana-Hurtado, ...; Cameron, E.; Campuzano, J. C.; Cardenas, R.; Carrero, J. J.; Carter, A.; Casey, D. C.; Castaneda-Orjuel ...; Rivas, J. C.; Castro, R.; Catala-Lopez, F.; Cercy, K.; Chang, H. Y.; Chang, J. C.; Charlson, F. J.; Chew, A.; Chisumpa, V. H.; Chitheer, A. A.; Christensen, H.; Christopher, D. ...; Cirillo, M.; Cooper, C.; Criqui, M. H.; Cromwell, E. A.; Crump, J. A.; Dandona, L.; Dandona, R.; Dargan, P. I.; das Neves, J.; Davitoiu, D. V.; de Courten, B.; De Steur, H.; Degenhardt, L.; Deiparine, S.; Deribe, K.; deveber, G. A.; Ding, E. L.; Djalalinia, S.; Do, H. P.; Dokova, K.; Doku, D. T.; Dorsey, E. R.; Driscoll, T. R.; Dubey, M.; Duncan, B. B.; Ebel, B. E.; Ebrahimi, H.; El-Khatib, Z. Z.; Enayati, A.; Endries, A. Y.; Ermakov, S. P.; Erskine, H. E.; Eshrati, B.; Eskandarieh, S.; Esteghamati, A.; Estep, K.; Faraon, E. J. A.; Farinha, Cses; Faro, A.; Farzadfar, F.; Fazeli, M. S.; Feigin, V. L.; Feigl, A. B.; Fereshtehnejad, ...; Fernandes, J. C.; Ferrari, A. J.; Feyissa, T. R.; Filip, I.; Fischer, F.; Fitzmaurice, C.; Flaxman, A. D.; Foigt, N.; Foreman, K. J.; Frank, T.; Franklin, R. C.; Friedman, J.; Frostad, J. J.; Furst, T.; Furtado, J. M.; Gakidou, E.; Larsson, Anders; Gebrehiwot, T. T ...; Geleijnse, J. M.; Geleto, A.; Gemechu, B. L.; Gething, P. W.; Gibney, K. B.; Gill, P. S.; Gillum, R. F.; Giref, A. Z.; Gishu, M. D.; Giussani, G.; Glenn, S. D.; Godwin, W. W.; Goldberg, E. M.; Gona, P. 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A.; Khang, Y. H.; Khosravi, A.; Khubchandani, J.; Kieling, C.; Kim, D.; Kim, J. Y.; Kim, Y. J.; Kimokoti, R. W.; Kinfu, Y.; Kisa, A.; Kissimova-Skarbe ...; Kivimaki, M.; Kokubo, Y.; Kopec, J. A.; Kosen, S.; Koul, P. A.; Koyanagi, A.; Kravchenko, M.; Krohn, K. J.; Defo, B. K.; Bicer, B. K.; Kulikoff, X. R.; Kumar, G. A.; Kutz, M. J.; Kyu, H. H.; Lal, D. K.; Lalloo, R.; Lansingh, V. C.; Larsson, A.; Lazarus, J. V.; Lee, P. H.; Leigh, J.; Leung, J.; Leung, R.; Levi, M.; Li, Y. M.; Liben, M. L.; Linn, S.; Liu, P. Y.; Liu, S. W.; Lodha, R.; Looker, K. J.; Lopez, A. D.; Lorkowski, S.; Lotufo, P. A.; Lozano, R.; Lucas, T. C. D.; Mackay, M. T.; Maddison, E. R.; Abd el Razek, H. ...; Abd el Razek, M. ...; Majdan, M.; Majdzadeh, R.; Majeed, A.; Malekzadeh, R.; Malhotra, R.; Malta, D. C.; Mamun, A. A.; Manguerra, H.; Mantovani, L. G.; Manyazewal, T.; Mapoma, C. C.; Marks, G. B.; Martin, R. V.; Martins-Melo, F. ...; Martopullo, I.; Mathur, M. R.; Mazidi, M.; McAlinden, C.; McGaughey, M.; McGrath, J. J.; McKee, M.; Mehata, S.; Mehndiratta, M. ...; Meier, T.; Meles, K. G.; Memish, Z. A.; Mendoza, W.; Mengesha, M. M.; Mengistie, M. A.; Mensah, G. A.; Mensink, G. B. M ...; Mereta, S. T.; Meretoja, A.; Meretoja, T. J.; Mezgebe, H. B.; Micha, R.; Millear, A.; Miller, T. R.; Minnig, S.; Mirarefin, M.; Mirrakhimov, E. ...; Misganaw, A.; Mishra, S. R.; Mitchell, P. B.; Mohammad, K. A.; Mohammed, K. E.; Mohammed, S.; Mohan, M. B. V.; Mokdad, A. H.; Mollenkopf, S. K ...; Monasta, L.; Hernandez, J. C. ...; Montico, M.; Moradi-Lakeh, M.; Moraga, P.; Morawska, L.; Morrison, S. D.; Moses, M. W.; Mountjoy-Venning ...; Mueller, U. O.; Muller, K.; Murthy, G. V. S.; Musa, K. I.; Naghavi, M.; Naheed, A.; Naidoo, K. S.; Nangia, V.; Natarajan, G.; Negoi, I.; Negoi, R. I.; Nguyen, C. T.; Nguyen, G.; Nguyen, M.; Le Nguyen, Q.; Nguyen, T. H.; Nichols, E.; Ningrum, D. N. A ...; Nomura, M.; Nong, V. M.; Norheim, O. F.; Noubiap, J. J. N ...; Obermeyer, C. M.; Ogbo, F. A.; Oh, I. H.; Oladimeji, O.; Olagunju, A. T.; Olagunju, T. O.; Olivares, P. R.; Olsen, H. E.; Olusanya, B. O.; Olusanya, J. O.; Ong, K. Y.; Oren, E.; Ortiz, A.; Owolabi, M. O.; Pa, M.; Pana, A.; Panda, B. K.; Panda-Jonas, S.; Papachristou, C.; Park, E. K.; Patton, G. C.; Paulson, K.; Pereira, D. M.; Perico, D. N.; Pesudovs, K.; Petzold, Max, 19 ...; Phillips, M. R.; Pigott, D. M.; Pillay, J. D.; Pinho, C.; Piradov, M. A.; Pishgar, F.; Poulton, R. G.; Pourmalek, F.; Qorbani, M.; Radfar, A.; Rafay, A.; Rao, P. C.; Rahimi-Movaghar, ...; Rahman, M.; Rahman, M. H. U.; Rahman, M. A.; Rai, R. K.; Rajsic, S.; Ram, U.; Ranabhat, C. L.; Rawaf, S.; Reidy, P.; Reiner, R. C.; Reinig, N.; Reitsma, M. B.; Remuzzi, G.; Renzaho, A. M. N ...; Resnikoff, S.; Rezaei, S.; Blancas, M. J. R ...; Roba, K. T.; Rojas-Rueda, D.; Rokni, M. B.; Roshandel, G.; Roth, G. A.; Roy, A.; Rubagotti, E.; Sadat, N.; Safdarian, M.; Safi, S.; Safiri, S.; Sagar, R.; Salama, J.; Salomon, J. A.; Samy, A. M.; Sanabria, J. R.; Santomauro, D.; Santos, I. S.; Santos, J. V.; Milicevic, M. M. ...; Sartorius, B.; Satpathy, M.; Sawhney, M.; Saxena, S.; Saylan, M. I.; Shirude, S.; Schmidt, M. I.; Schneider, I. J. ...; Schneider, M. T.; Schottker, B.; Schutte, A. E.; Schwebel, D. C.; Schwendicke, F.; Seedat, S.; Sepanlou, S. G.; Servan-Mori, E. ...; Shackelford, K. ...; Shaheen, A.; Shahraz, S.; Shaikh, M. A.; Shamsipour, M.; Shamsizadeh, M.; Islam, S. M. S.; Sharma, J.; Sharma, R.; She, J.; Shi, P. L.; Shibuya, K.; Shields, C.; Shiferaw, M. S.; Shigematsu, M.; Shin, M. J.; Shiri, R.; Shirkoohi, R.; Shishani, K.; Shoman, H.; Shrime, M. G.; Silva, D. A. S.; Silva, J. P.; Silveira, D. G. ...; Singh, J. A.; Singh, V.; Sinha, D. N.; Skiadaresi, E.; Slepak, E. L.; Sligar, A.; Smith, A.; Smith, D. L.; Smith, M.; Sobaih, B. H. A.; Sobngwi, E.; Soljak, M.; Soneji, S.; Sorensen, R. J. ...; Sposato, L. A.; Sreeramareddy, C ...; Srinivasan, V.; Stanaway, J. D.; Stein, D. J.; Steinke, S.; Stokes, M. A.; Strub, B.; Sufiyan, M. B.; Abdulkader, R. S ...; Sunguya, B. F.; Sur, P. J.; Swaminathan, S.; Sykes, B. L.; Sylte, D. O.; Szoeke, C. E. I.; Tabares-Seisdedo ...; Tadakamadla, S. ...; Tandon, N.; Tao, T. C.; Tarekegn, Y. L.; Tavakkoli, M.; Taveira, N.; Tegegne, T. K.; Shifa, G. T.; Terkawi, A. S.; Tessema, G. A.; Thakur, J. S.; Thankappan, K. R ...; Thrift, A. G.; Tiruye, T. Y.; Tobe-Gai, R.; Topor-Madry, R.; Torre, A.; Tortajada, M.; Tran, B. X.; Troeger, C.; Truelsen, T.; Tsoi, D.; Tuem, K. B.; Tuzcu, E. M.; Tyrovolas, S.; Ukwaja, K. N.; Uneke, C. J.; Updike, R.; Uthman, O. A.; van Boven, J. F. ...; van Donkelaar, A ...; Varughese, S.; Vasankari, T.; Venketasubramani ...; Vidavalur, R.; Violante, F. S.; Vladimirov, S. K ...; Vlassov, V. V.; Vollset, S. E.; Vos, T.; Wadilo, F.; Wakayo, T.; Wallin, M. T.; Wang, Y. P.; Weichenthal, S.; Weiderpass, E.; Weintraub, R. G.; Weiss, D. J.; Werdecker, A.; Westerman, R.; Whiteford, H. A.; Wijeratne, T.; Wiysonge, C. S.; Woldeyes, B. G.; Wolfe, C. D. A.; Woodbrook, R.; Xavier, D.; Xu, G. L.; Yadgir, S.; Yakob, B.; Yan, L. L. J.; Yano, Y.; Yaseri, M.; Ye, P. P.; Yimam, H. H.; Yip, P.; Yonemoto, N.; Yoon, S. J.; Yotebieng, M.; Younis, M. Z.; Zaidi, Z.; Zaki, M. E. S.; Zavala-Arciniega ...; Zhang, X. Y.; Zipkin, B.; Zodpey, S.; Lim, S. S.; Murray, C. J. L.; Gbd Sdg Collabor ...; show less...

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MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES: MEDICAL AND HEAL ...; and Health Sciences

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES: MEDICAL AND HEAL ...; and Health Sciences; and Public Health Gl ...

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