Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

• As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria (economic', technical', political' and safety' factors) and their sub-criteria.The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, economic' is the most important category of influential factors, followed by safety', technical' and political' factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the safety' and political' domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to economic' factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik -- Transportteknik och logistik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Civil Engineering -- Transport Systems and Logistics (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Arctic shipping

analytic hierarchy process

route choice

shipping companies

shipping operators

northern sea route

northwest passage

freight markets

term structure

ahp model

regime

protection

management

navigation

emissions

Transportation

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)

art (ämneskategori)