Environmental variability can select for optimism or pessimism

We propose operational definitions of reproductive optimism and pessimism; optimism involves behaving in a way that gives too much weight (in terms of producing surviving offspring) to positive events, pessimism gives too much weight to negative events. Natural selection maximizes the long-term growth of a lineage rather than short-term measures such as numbers of offspring. Consequently, optimism or pessimism can be favoured by natural selection, even though such biases appear irrational from a short-term perspective. We investigate the evolution of optimism in a metapopulation. The circumstances of a patch change over time, independently of other patches. With sufficient dispersal between patches, stochasticity affects members of a lineage largely independently and optimism is favoured. With little dispersal, the temporal fluctuations of a patch affect many members similarly; pessimism is then favoured. Our results establish that the spatial and temporal structure of the environment is crucial in determining the direction of evolved biases. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Trimmer, Pete C. (author)
Eriksson, Anders,1975Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för marin ekologi,Department of Marine Ecology(Swepub:gu)xeands (author)
Marshall, James A R (author)
Houston, Alasdair I. (author)
Göteborgs universitetInstitutionen för marin ekologi (creator_code:org_t)

By the author/editor: McNamara, John M ...; Trimmer, Pete C.; Eriksson, Anders ...; Marshall, James ...; Houston, Alasdai ...

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NATURAL SCIENCES: NATURAL SCIENCES; and Earth and Relate ...; and Environmental Sc ...

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