Projected climate change impact on a coastal sea-As significant as all current pressures combined

Climate change influences the ocean's physical and biogeochemical conditions, causing additional pressures on marine environments and ecosystems, now and in the future. Such changes occur in environments that already today suffer under pressures from, for example, eutrophication, pollution, shipping, and more. We demonstrate how to implement climate change into regional marine spatial planning by introducing data of future temperature, salinity, and sea ice cover from regional ocean climate model projections to an existing cumulative impact model. This makes it possible to assess climate change impact in relation to pre-existing cumulative impact from current human activities. Results indicate that end-of-century projected climate change alone is a threat of the same magnitude as the combination of all current pressures to the marine environment. These findings give marine planners and policymakers forewarning on how future climate change may impact marine ecosystems, across space, emission scenarios, and in relation to other pressures.

NATURVETENSKAP Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap Miljövetenskap hsv//swe
NATURAL SCIENCES Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Environmental Sciences hsv//eng
Baltic Sea
climate change
cumulative effects
Delphi method
ecosystem-based management
marine spatial planning
multiple stressors
Symphony
baltic sea
scenarios
Biodiversity & Conservation
Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Hammar, L. (author)
Hume, D. (author)
Palsson, J. (author)
Almroth-Rosell, E. (author)
Dieterich, C. (author)
Arneborg, L. (author)
Groger, M. (author)
Mattsson, M. (author)
Snowball, L. Z. (author)
Kagesten, G. (author)
Tornqvist, O. (author)
Breviere, E. (author)
Brunnabend, S. E. (author)
Jonsson, Per R.,1957Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för marina vetenskaper, Tjärnö marinlaboratoriet,Department of marine sciences, Tjärnö Marine Laboratory(Swepub:gu)xjpera (author)
Göteborgs universitetInstitutionen för marina vetenskaper, Tjärnö marinlaboratoriet (creator_code:org_t)

By the author/editor: Wahlstrom, I.; Hammar, L.; Hume, D.; Palsson, J.; Almroth-Rosell, ...; Dieterich, C.; show more...; Arneborg, L.; Groger, M.; Mattsson, M.; Snowball, L. Z.; Kagesten, G.; Tornqvist, O.; Breviere, E.; Brunnabend, S. E ...; Jonsson, Per R., ...; show less...

About the subject

NATURAL SCIENCES: NATURAL SCIENCES; and Earth and Relate ...; and Environmental Sc ...

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