Test-retest variability of plasma biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease and its effects on clinical prediction models

• INTRODUCTION The effect of random error on the performance of blood-based biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease (AD) must be determined before clinical implementation. METHODS We measured test-retest variability of plasma amyloid beta (A beta)42/A beta 40, neurofilament light (NfL), glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), and phosphorylated tau (p-tau)217 and simulated effects of this variability on biomarker performance when predicting either cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) A beta status or conversion to AD dementia in 399 non-demented participants with cognitive symptoms. RESULTS Clinical performance was highest when combining all biomarkers. Among single-biomarkers, p-tau217 performed best. Test-retest variability ranged from 4.1% (A beta 42/A beta 40) to 25% (GFAP). This variability reduced the performance of the biomarkers (approximate to Delta AUC [area under the curve] -1% to -4%) with the least effects on models with p-tau217. The percent of individuals with unstable predicted outcomes was lowest for the multi-biomarker combination (14%). DISCUSSION Clinical prediction models combining plasma biomarkers-particularly p-tau217-exhibit high performance and are less effected by random error. Individuals with unstable predicted outcomes ("gray zone") should be recommended for further tests.

Subject headings

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Medicinska och farmaceutiska grundvetenskaper -- Neurovetenskaper (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Basic Medicine -- Neurosciences (hsv//eng)

Keyword

diagnosis

gray zones

plasma biomarkers

random error

test-retest

variability

gray zone

diagnosis

Neurosciences & Neurology

test-retest variability

Publication and Content Type

ref (subject category)

art (subject category)