Two-Step Approach for the Prediction of Future Type 2 Diabetes Risk

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Abdul-Ghani, Muhammad A. (author)

Two-Step Approach for the Prediction of Future Type 2 Diabetes Risk

Article/chapterEnglish2011

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2011-08-19
American Diabetes Association,2011

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LIBRIS-ID:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:07151614-f0be-4520-bcee-4ef0ad039afa
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/2180208URI
https://doi.org/10.2337/dc10-2201DOI

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Language:English
Summary in:English

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OBJECTIVE-To develop a model for the prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk on the basis of a multivariate logistic model and 1-h plasma glucose concentration (1-h PG). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-The model was developed in a cohort of 1,562 non-diabetic subjects from the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS) and validated in 2,395 nondiabetic subjects in the Botnia Study. A risk score on the basis of anthropometric parameters, plasma glucose and lipid profile, and blood pressure was computed for each subject. Subjects with a risk score above a certain cut point were considered to represent high-risk individuals, and their 1-h PG concentration during the oral glucose tolerance test was used to further refine their future T2DM risk. RESULTS-We used the San Antonio Diabetes Prediction Model (SADPM) to generate the initial risk score. A risk-score value of 0.065 was found to be an optimal cut point for initial screening and selection of high-risk individuals. A 1-h PG concentration >140 mg/dL in high-risk individuals (whose risk score was >0.065) was the optimal cut point for identification of subjects at increased risk. The two cut points had 77.8, 77.4, and 44.8% (for the SAHS) and 75.8, 71.6, and 11.9% (for the Botnia Study) sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value, respectively, in the SAHS and Botnia Study. CONCLUSIONS-A two-step model, based on the combination of the SADPM and 1-h PG, is a useful tool for the identification of high-risk Mexican-American and Caucasian individuals. Diabetes Care 34:2108-2112, 2011

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Abdul-Ghani, Tamam (author)
Stern, Michael P. (author)
Karavic, Jasmina (author)
Tuomi, TiinamaijaLund University,Lunds universitet,Genomik, diabetes och endokrinologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Genomics, Diabetes and Endocrinology,Lund University Research Groups(Swepub:lu)ti8736tu (author)
Bo, Insoma (author)
DeFronzo, Ralph A. (author)
Groop, LeifLund University,Lunds universitet,Genomik, diabetes och endokrinologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Genomics, Diabetes and Endocrinology,Lund University Research Groups(Swepub:lu)endo-lgr (author)
Genomik, diabetes och endokrinologiForskargrupper vid Lunds universitet (creator_code:org_t)

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In:Diabetes Care: American Diabetes Association34:9, s. 2108-21121935-55480149-5992

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