Alarm characteristics for a flood warning system with deterministic components

A method for evaluating a predictor-based alarm system is studied in this paper. The predictor is composed of a deterministic component reflecting external information and a statistically based component for the error between the measurements and the external predictor. The aim of the predictor study is twofold: it is a means of interpreting the connections between the alarm and the catastrophe, and it can be used to select suitable alarm levels. As an application, the performance of a water-level predictor as part of a flood warning system has been evaluated. The result of this analysis shows that an alarm system which operates when the predictor reaches a certain level will tend to give either too many alarms or alarms that are out of phase with the catastrophe.''

Holst, JanLund University,Lunds universitet,Matematisk statistik,Matematikcentrum,Institutioner vid LTH,Lunds Tekniska Högskola,Mathematical Statistics,Centre for Mathematical Sciences,Departments at LTH,Faculty of Engineering, LTH(Swepub:lu)mats-jho (författare)
Lindgren, GeorgLund University,Lunds universitet,Spatio-Temporal Stochastic Modelling Group,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Matematisk statistik,Matematikcentrum,Institutioner vid LTH,Lunds Tekniska Högskola,Lund University Research Groups,Mathematical Statistics,Centre for Mathematical Sciences,Departments at LTH,Faculty of Engineering, LTH(Swepub:lu)mats-gli (författare)
Matematisk statistikMatematikcentrum (creator_code:org_t)

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