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Sökning: onr:"swepub:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:1afb387e-8076-4fa9-8896-df13eeeb5b83" > Exploring uncertain...

  • Müller, ChristophPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (författare)

Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios

  • Artikel/kapitelEngelska2021

Förlag, utgivningsår, omfång ...

  • 2021-02-26
  • IOP Publishing,2021

Nummerbeteckningar

  • LIBRIS-ID:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:1afb387e-8076-4fa9-8896-df13eeeb5b83
  • https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/1afb387e-8076-4fa9-8896-df13eeeb5b83URI
  • https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd8fcDOI

Kompletterande språkuppgifter

  • Språk:engelska
  • Sammanfattning på:engelska

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Klassifikation

  • Ämneskategori:art swepub-publicationtype
  • Ämneskategori:ref swepub-contenttype

Anmärkningar

  • Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and 34 CMIP6 climate projections for three different forcing scenarios. To make this task computationally tractable, we use a new set of statistical crop model emulators. We find that climate and crop models contribute about equally to overall uncertainty. While the ranges of yield uncertainties under CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections are similar, median impact in aggregate total caloric production is typically more negative for the CMIP6 projections (+1% to −19%) than for CMIP5 (+5% to −13%). In the first half of the 21st century and for individual crops is the spread across crop models typically wider than that across climate models, but we find distinct differences between crops: globally, wheat and maize uncertainties are dominated by the crop models, but soybean and rice are more sensitive to the climate projections. Climate models with very similar global mean warming can lead to very different aggregate impacts so that climate model uncertainties remain a significant contributor to agricultural impacts uncertainty. These results show the utility of large-ensemble methods that allow comprehensively evaluating factors affecting crop yields or other impacts under climate change. The crop model ensemble used here is unbalanced and pulls the assumption that all projections are equally plausible into question. Better methods for consistent model testing, also at the level of individual processes, will have to be developed and applied by the crop modeling community.

Ämnesord och genrebeteckningar

Biuppslag (personer, institutioner, konferenser, titlar ...)

  • Franke, JamesUniversity of Chicago,NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (författare)
  • Jägermeyr, JonasNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,Columbia University (författare)
  • Ruane, Alex C.NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (författare)
  • Elliott, JoshuaUniversity of Chicago (författare)
  • Moyer, ElisabethUniversity of Chicago (författare)
  • Heinke, JensPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (författare)
  • Falloon, Pete D.Met Office (författare)
  • Folberth, ChristianInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (författare)
  • Francois, LouisUniversity of Liège (författare)
  • Hank, TobiasLudwig-Maximilian University of Munich (författare)
  • Izaurralde, R. CésarUniversity of Maryland (författare)
  • Jacquemin, IngridUniversity of Liège (författare)
  • Liu, WenfengChina Agricultural University (författare)
  • Olin, StefanLund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science(Swepub:lu)nate-sao (författare)
  • Pugh, Thomas A.M.Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,University of Birmingham(Swepub:lu)th5432pu (författare)
  • Williams, KarinaMet Office,University of Exeter (författare)
  • Zabel, FlorianLudwig-Maximilian University of Munich (författare)
  • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchUniversity of Chicago (creator_code:org_t)

Sammanhörande titlar

  • Ingår i:Environmental Research Letters: IOP Publishing16:31748-93181748-9326

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