Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment: the users’ perspective. Regional Environmental Change

↓ Direkt till sidans innehåll
↓ Direkt till sidans sekundära innehåll (sidomenyn)

Sökning: WFRF:(Van Ittersum Martin) > Uncertainty analysi...

Gabbert, SilkeWageningen University (författare)

Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment: the users’ perspective. Regional Environmental Change

Artikel/kapitelEngelska2010

Förlag, utgivningsår, omfång ...

2009-09-30
Springer Science and Business Media LLC,2010
12 s.

Nummerbeteckningar

LIBRIS-ID:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:3a79f408-4ff0-45c5-a74a-711df78c9f7d
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/1616625URI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-009-0100-1DOI

Kompletterande språkuppgifter

Språk:engelska
Sammanfattning på:engelska

Ingår i deldatabas

SwePubSwePub

Klassifikation

Ämneskategori:art swepub-publicationtype
Ämneskategori:ref swepub-contenttype

Anmärkningar

Integrated Assessment (IA) models aim at providing information- and decision-support to complex problems. This paper argues that uncertainty analysis in IA models should be user-driven in order to strengthen science–policy interaction. We suggest an approach to uncertainty analysis that starts with investigating model users’ demands for uncertainty information. These demands are called “uncertainty information needs”. Identifying model users’ uncertainty information needs allows focusing the analysis on those uncertainties which users consider relevant and meaningful. As an illustrative example, we discuss the case of examining users’ uncertainty information needs in the SEAMLESS Integrated Framework (SEAMLESS-IF), an IA model chain for assessing and comparing alternative agricultural and environmental policy options. The most important user group of SEAMLESS-IF are policy experts at the European and national level. Uncertainty information needs of this user group were examined in an interactive process during the development of SEAMLESS-IF and by using a questionnaire. Results indicate that users’ information requirements differed from the uncertainty categories considered most relevant by model developers. In particular, policy experts called for addressing a broader set of uncertainty sources (e.g. model structure and technical model setup). The findings highlight that investigating users’ uncertainty information needs is an essential step towards creating confidence in an IA model and its outcomes. This alone, however, may not be sufficient for effectively implementing a user-oriented uncertainty analysis in such models. As the case study illustrates, it requires to include uncertainty analysis into user participation from the outset of the IA modelling process.

Ämnesord och genrebeteckningar

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP Annan samhällsvetenskap Tvärvetenskapliga studier inom samhällsvetenskap hsv//swe
SOCIAL SCIENCES Other Social Sciences Social Sciences Interdisciplinary hsv//eng
SEAMLESS Integrated Framework
Uncertainty information needs
Integrated Assessment models
Effective uncertainty analysis
Science-policy interaction

Biuppslag (personer, institutioner, konferenser, titlar ...)

Van Ittersum, MartinWageningen University (författare)
Kroeze, CarolienOpen University of the Netherlands,Wageningen University (författare)
Stalpers, SergeWageningen University (författare)
Ewert, FrankUniversity of Bonn (författare)
Alkan Olsson, JohannaLund University,Lunds universitet,LUCSUS,Samhällsvetenskapliga institutioner och centrumbildningar,Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten,LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies),Departments of Administrative, Economic and Social Sciences,Faculty of Social Sciences(Swepub:lu)lucs-jas (författare)
Wageningen UniversityOpen University of the Netherlands (creator_code:org_t)

Sammanhörande titlar

Ingår i:Regional Environmental Change: Springer Science and Business Media LLC10:2, s. 131-1431436-37981436-378X

Internetlänk

Hitta via bibliotek

Regional Environmental Change (Sök värdpublikationen i LIBRIS)

Till lärosätets databas

Hitta mer i SwePub

Av författaren/redakt...: Gabbert, Silke; Van Ittersum, Ma ...; Kroeze, Carolien; Stalpers, Serge; Ewert, Frank; Alkan Olsson, Jo ...

Om ämnet

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP: SAMHÄLLSVETENSKA ...; och Annan samhällsve ...; och Tvärvetenskaplig ...

Artiklar i publikationen: Regional Environ ...

Av lärosätet: Lunds universitet

Sök utanför SwePub

Sök vidare i:: Google; Google Book Search; Google Scholar

Kungliga biblioteket hanterar dina personuppgifter i enlighet med EU:s dataskyddsförordning (2018), GDPR. Läs mer om hur det funkar här.
Så här hanterar KB dina uppgifter vid användning av denna tjänst.

LIBRIS.kb.se