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  • Rodríguez, A.Technical University of Madrid,University of Castilla La Mancha (author)

Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations

  • Article/chapterEnglish2019

Publisher, publication year, extent ...

  • Elsevier BV,2019

Numbers

  • LIBRIS-ID:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:426f2a07-4788-4c73-a54d-c0fc37ffc733
  • https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/426f2a07-4788-4c73-a54d-c0fc37ffc733URI
  • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.09.018DOI
  • https://res.slu.se/id/publ/97807URI

Supplementary language notes

  • Language:English
  • Summary in:English

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  • Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype
  • Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype

Notes

  • Climate change is expected to severely affect cropping systems and food production in many parts of the world unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which analyses the effect of changes in composition and size of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to evaluate the level of agreement between MME outcomes with respect to a given hypothesis (e.g. that adaptation measures result in positive crop responses). We analysed the recommendations of a previous study performed with an ensemble of 17 crop models and testing 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) at Lleida (NE Spain) under perturbed conditions of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results confirmed that most adaptations recommended in the previous study have a positive effect. However, we also showed that some options did not remain recommendable in specific conditions if different ensembles were considered. Using EOA, we were able to identify the adaptation options for which there is high confidence in their effectiveness at enhancing yields, even under severe climate perturbations. These include substituting spring wheat for winter wheat combined with earlier sowing dates and standard or longer duration cultivars, or introducing supplementary irrigation, the latter increasing EOA values in all cases. There is low confidence in recovering yields to baseline levels, although this target could be attained for some adaptation options under moderate climate perturbations. Recommendations derived from such robust results may provide crucial information for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures.

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Added entries (persons, corporate bodies, meetings, titles ...)

  • Ruiz-Ramos, M.Technical University of Madrid,University of Copenhagen (author)
  • Palosuo, T.Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) (author)
  • Carter, T. R.Finnish Environment Institute (author)
  • Fronzek, S.Finnish Environment Institute (author)
  • Lorite, I. J.Andalusian Institute of Agricultural and Fisheries Research and Training (author)
  • Ferrise, RobertoUniversity of Florence (author)
  • Pirttioja, N.Finnish Environment Institute (author)
  • Bindi, MarcoUniversity of Florence (author)
  • Baranowski, P.Institute of Agrophysics, PAS (author)
  • Buis, S.INRA National Institute of Agricultural Research (author)
  • Cammarano, D.James Hutton Institute (author)
  • Chen, Y.Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) (author)
  • Dumont, B.University of Liège (author)
  • Ewert, F.University of Bonn (author)
  • Gaiser, T.University of Bonn (author)
  • Hlavinka, P.Mendel University,Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic (author)
  • Hoffmann, H.University of Bonn (author)
  • Höhn, J. G.Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) (author)
  • Jurecka, F.Mendel University,Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic (author)
  • Kersebaum, Kurt ChristianLeibniz-Zentrum fur Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF) e. V. (author)
  • Krzyszczak, J.Institute of Agrophysics, PAS (author)
  • Lana, M.Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Leibniz-Zentrum fur Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF) e. V.,Institutionen för växtproduktionsekologi,Department of Crop Production Ecology,Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) (author)
  • Mechiche-Alami, A.Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science(Swepub:lu)nate-atm (author)
  • Minet, J.University of Liège (author)
  • Montesino, ManuelUniversity of Copenhagen,Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic,Mendel University (author)
  • Nendel, C.Leibniz-Zentrum fur Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF) e. V. (author)
  • Porter, J. R.University of Copenhagen (author)
  • Ruget, FrançoiseINRA National Institute of Agricultural Research (author)
  • Semenov, Mikhail A.Rothamsted Research (author)
  • Steinmetz, Z.RIFCON GmbH (author)
  • Stratonovitch, PierreRothamsted Research (author)
  • Supit, I.Wageningen University (author)
  • Tao, FuluNatural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) (author)
  • Trnka, M.Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic,Mendel University (author)
  • de Wit, A.Wageningen University (author)
  • Rötter, R. P.University of Göttingen (author)
  • Technical University of MadridUniversity of Castilla La Mancha (creator_code:org_t)
  • Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet

Related titles

  • In:Agricultural and Forest Meteorology: Elsevier BV264, s. 351-3620168-19231873-2240

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