Search: WFRF:(Van Vuuren Detlef P.) >
Global change scena...
Global change scenarios in coastal river deltas and their sustainable development implications
-
- Scown, Murray W. (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,LUCSUS,Samhällsvetenskapliga institutioner och centrumbildningar,Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten,LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies),Departments of Administrative, Economic and Social Sciences,Faculty of Social Sciences,Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development
-
- Dunn, Frances E. (author)
- Utrecht University
-
- Dekker, Stefan C. (author)
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development
-
show more...
-
- van Vuuren, Detlef P. (author)
- Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development,Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Hague
-
- Karabil, Sitar (author)
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht
-
- Sutanudjaja, Edwin H. (author)
- Utrecht University
-
- Santos, Maria J. (author)
- University of Zurich
-
- Minderhoud, Philip S.J. (author)
- University of Padova,Wageningen University,Deltares - Netherlands Centre for Coastal Research
-
- Garmestani, Ahjond S. (author)
- United States Environmental Protection Agency
-
- Middelkoop, Hans (author)
- Utrecht University
-
show less...
-
(creator_code:org_t)
- 2023
- 2023
- English.
-
In: Global Environmental Change. - 0959-3780. ; 82
- Related links:
-
http://dx.doi.org/10... (free)
-
show more...
-
https://lup.lub.lu.s...
-
https://doi.org/10.1...
-
show less...
Abstract
Subject headings
Close
- Deltas play a critical role in the ambition to achieve global sustainable development given their relatively large shares in population and productive croplands, as well as their precarious low-lying position between upstream river basin development and rising seas. The large pressures on these systems risk undermining the persistence of delta societies, economies, and ecosystems. We analyse possible future development in 49 deltas around the globe under the Shared Socio-economic and Representative Concentration Pathways until 2100. Population density, urban fraction, and total and irrigated cropland fraction are three to twelve times greater in these deltas, on average, than in the rest of the world. Maximum river water discharges are projected to increase by 11–33 % and river sediment discharges are projected to decrease 26–37 % on average, depending on the scenario. Regional sea-level rise reaches almost 1.0 m by 2100 for certain deltas in the worst-case scenario, increasing to almost 2.0 m of relative rise considering land subsidence. Extreme sea levels could be much higher still—reaching over 4.0 m by 2100 for six of the 49 deltas analysed. Socio-economic conditions to support adaptation are the weakest among deltas with the greatest pressures, compounding the challenge of sustainable development. Asian and African deltas stand out as having heightened socio-economic challenges—huge population and land use pressures in most Asian deltas and the Nile delta; low capacity for adaptation in most African deltas and the Irrawaddy delta. Although, deltas in other parts of the world are not immune from these and other pressures, either. Because of unique pressures and processes operating in deltas, as in other “hotspots” such as small islands, mountains, and semi-arid areas, we recommend greater consideration and conceptualisation of environmental processes in global sustainable development agendas and in the Integrated Assessment Models used to guide global policy.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- Climate risk
- RCP
- Sea-level rise
- SSP
- Sustainable development
- Urbanisation
Publication and Content Type
- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
Find in a library
To the university's database
- By the author/editor
-
Scown, Murray W.
-
Dunn, Frances E.
-
Dekker, Stefan C ...
-
van Vuuren, Detl ...
-
Karabil, Sitar
-
Sutanudjaja, Edw ...
-
show more...
-
Santos, Maria J.
-
Minderhoud, Phil ...
-
Garmestani, Ahjo ...
-
Middelkoop, Hans
-
show less...
- About the subject
-
- NATURAL SCIENCES
-
NATURAL SCIENCES
-
and Earth and Relate ...
-
and Environmental Sc ...
- Articles in the publication
-
Global Environme ...
- By the university
-
Lund University