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Global Response Pat...
Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation
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- Minoli, Sara (författare)
- Leibniz Association,Humboldt University of Berlin
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- Müller, Christoph (författare)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Elliott, Joshua (författare)
- University of Chicago
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- Ruane, Alex C. (författare)
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
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- Jägermeyr, Jonas (författare)
- University of Chicago,Leibniz Association,NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
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- Zabel, Florian (författare)
- World Orthopaedic Concern
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- Dury, Marie (författare)
- University of Liège
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- Folberth, Christian (författare)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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- François, Louis (författare)
- University of Liège
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Hank, Tobias (författare)
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- Jacquemin, Ingrid (författare)
- University of Liège
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- Liu, Wenfeng (författare)
- Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines University,Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
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- Olin, Stefan (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
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- Pugh, Thomas A.M. (författare)
- Birmingham Institute of Forest Research,University of Birmingham
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2019
- 2019
- Engelska 17 s.
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Ingår i: Earth's Future. - 2328-4277. ; 7:12, s. 1464-1480
- Relaterad länk:
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http://dx.doi.org/10... (free)
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https://lup.lub.lu.s...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology, growth, and evapotranspiration. However, future projections typically do not consider the effects of agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature up to 6 K, accounting for model uncertainty. We find that without adaptation, the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce grain yields and production. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to combat warming-induced yield reduction: (i) use of cultivars with adjusted phenology to regain the reference growing period duration and (ii) conversion of rainfed systems to irrigated ones in order to alleviate the negative temperature effects that are mediated by crop evapotranspiration. We find that cultivar adaptation can fully compensate global production losses up to 2 K of temperature increase, with larger potentials in continental and temperate regions. Irrigation could also compensate production losses, but its potential is highest in arid regions, where irrigation expansion would be constrained by water scarcity. Moreover, we discuss that irrigation is not a true adaptation measure but rather an intensification strategy, as it equally increases production under any temperature level. In the tropics, even when introducing both adapted cultivars and irrigation, crop production declines already at moderate warming, making adaptation particularly challenging in these areas.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- adaptation
- crop model
- crop yield
- growing period
- irrigation
- temperature increase
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Minoli, Sara
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Müller, Christop ...
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Elliott, Joshua
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Ruane, Alex C.
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Jägermeyr, Jonas
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Zabel, Florian
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visa fler...
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Dury, Marie
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Folberth, Christ ...
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François, Louis
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Hank, Tobias
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Jacquemin, Ingri ...
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Liu, Wenfeng
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Olin, Stefan
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Pugh, Thomas A.M ...
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