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Understanding the w...
Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability
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- Frieler, Katja (författare)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Schauberger, Bernhard (författare)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Arneth, Almut (författare)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
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- Balkovič, Juraj (författare)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,Comenius University
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- Chryssanthacopoulos, James (författare)
- Columbia University,University of Chicago
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- Deryng, Delphine (författare)
- Columbia University,Climate Analytics
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- Elliott, Joshua (författare)
- University of Chicago,Columbia University
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- Folberth, Christian (författare)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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- Khabarov, Nikolay (författare)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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- Müller, Christoph (författare)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Olin, Stefan (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science
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- Pugh, Thomas Alan Miller (författare)
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology,University of Birmingham
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- Schaphoff, Sibyll (författare)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Schewe, Jacob (författare)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Schmid, Erwin (författare)
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna
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- Warszawski, Lila (författare)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Levermann, Anders (författare)
- Columbia University,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,University of Potsdam
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2017
- 2017
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Earth's Future. - 2328-4277. ; 5:6, s. 605-616
- Relaterad länk:
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http://dx.doi.org/10... (free)
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https://lup.lub.lu.s...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also provide options to represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.
Ämnesord
- LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER -- Annan lantbruksvetenskap -- Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
- AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES -- Other Agricultural Sciences -- Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- Crop yield variability
- Weather sensitivity
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- art (ämneskategori)
- ref (ämneskategori)
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Till lärosätets databas
- Av författaren/redakt...
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Frieler, Katja
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Schauberger, Ber ...
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Arneth, Almut
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Balkovič, Juraj
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Chryssanthacopou ...
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Deryng, Delphine
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visa fler...
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Elliott, Joshua
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Folberth, Christ ...
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Khabarov, Nikola ...
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Müller, Christop ...
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Olin, Stefan
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Pugh, Thomas Ala ...
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Schaphoff, Sibyl ...
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Schewe, Jacob
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Schmid, Erwin
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Warszawski, Lila
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Levermann, Ander ...
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visa färre...
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- LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER
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LANTBRUKSVETENSK ...
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och Annan lantbruksv ...
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och Miljö och naturv ...
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- NATURVETENSKAP
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NATURVETENSKAP
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och Geovetenskap och ...
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och Klimatforskning
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Earth's Future
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Lunds universitet