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Substantial Differences in Crop Yield Sensitivities Between Models Call for Functionality-Based Model Evaluation

Müller, Christoph (author)
Leibniz Association
Jägermeyr, Jonas (author)
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,Leibniz Association,Center for Climate Systems Research
Franke, James A. (author)
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Ruane, Alex C. (author)
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Balkovic, Juraj (author)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Ciais, Philippe (author)
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
Dury, Marie (author)
University of Liège
Falloon, Pete (author)
Met Office,University of Bristol
Folberth, Christian (author)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Hank, Tobias (author)
Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich
Hoffmann, Munir (author)
University of Göttingen
Izaurralde, R. Cesar (author)
University of Maryland
Jacquemin, Ingrid (author)
University of Liège
Khabarov, Nikolay (author)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Liu, Wenfeng (author)
National Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources (CAS),China Agricultural University
Olin, Stefan (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,LU profilområde: Naturbaserade framtidslösningar,Lunds universitets profilområden,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,LU Profile Area: Nature-based future solutions,Lund University Profile areas
Pugh, Thomas A.M. (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,LU profilområde: Naturbaserade framtidslösningar,Lunds universitets profilområden,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,LU Profile Area: Nature-based future solutions,Lund University Profile areas,University of Birmingham
Wang, Xuhui (author)
Peking University
Williams, Karina (author)
Met Office,University of Exeter
Zabel, Florian (author)
Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich,University of Basel
Elliott, Joshua W. (author)
Federation of American Scientists
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 (creator_code:org_t)
2024
2024
English.
In: Earth's Future. - 2328-4277. ; 12:3
Related links:
http://dx.doi.org/10... (free)
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https://lup.lub.lu.s...
https://doi.org/10.1...
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  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract Subject headings
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  • Crop models are often used to project future crop yield under climate and global change and typically show a broad range of outcomes. To understand differences in modeled responses, we analyzed modeled crop yield response types using impact response surfaces along four drivers of crop yield: carbon dioxide (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N). Crop yield response types help to understand differences in simulated responses per driver and their combinations rather than aggregated changes in yields as the result of simultaneous changes in various drivers. We find that models' sensitivities to the individual drivers are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response types across models and their configurations suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model evaluation based on emergent functionality not only against historical yield observations but also against dedicated experiments across different drivers to analyze emergent functional patterns of crop models.

Subject headings

LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER  -- Lantbruksvetenskap, skogsbruk och fiske -- Jordbruksvetenskap (hsv//swe)
AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES  -- Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries -- Agricultural Science (hsv//eng)

Keyword

AgMIP
crop model
evaluation
global
sensitivity
uncertainty

Publication and Content Type

art (subject category)
ref (subject category)

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