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  • Virkkala, Anna MariaUniversity of Helsinki (author)

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties

  • Article/chapterEnglish2021

Publisher, publication year, extent ...

  • 2021-06-10
  • Wiley,2021

Numbers

  • LIBRIS-ID:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:5eb7eac8-80c0-4c81-8b3d-6621ae9ad588
  • https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/5eb7eac8-80c0-4c81-8b3d-6621ae9ad588URI
  • https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659DOI
  • https://res.slu.se/id/publ/112545URI

Supplementary language notes

  • Language:English
  • Summary in:English

Part of subdatabase

Classification

  • Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype
  • Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype

Notes

  • The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Subject headings and genre

Added entries (persons, corporate bodies, meetings, titles ...)

  • Aalto, JuhaUniversity of Helsinki,Finnish Meteorological Institute (author)
  • Marushchak, MaijaUniversity of Texas at El Paso,University of Jyväskylä,University of Eastern Finland(Swepub:lu)ma3875ma (author)
  • Tagesson, TorbernLund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,University of Copenhagen(Swepub:lu)to5874ta (author)
  • Treat, Claire C.Alfred-Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (author)
  • Natali, Susan M. (author)
  • Watts, Jennifer D. (author)
  • Potter, Stefano (author)
  • Lehtonen, AleksiNatural Resources Institute Finland (Luke) (author)
  • Mauritz, MargueriteUniversity of Texas at El Paso,Trent University (author)
  • Schuur, Edward A.G.Northern Arizona University (author)
  • Kochendorfer, John (author)
  • Zona, DonatellaSan Diego State University,University of Sheffield (author)
  • Oechel, WalterSan Diego State University,University of Exeter (author)
  • Kobayashi, HidekiJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (author)
  • Humphreys, ElynCarleton University (author)
  • Goeckede, MathiasMax Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (author)
  • Iwata, HirokiShinshu University (author)
  • Lafleur, Peter M.Trent University (author)
  • Euskirchen, Eugenie S.University of Alaska Fairbanks (author)
  • Bokhorst, StefVrije Universiteit Amsterdam (author)
  • Marushchak, MaijaUniversity of Jyväskylä,University of Eastern Finland(Swepub:lu)ma3875ma (author)
  • Martikainen, Pertti J.Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Institutionen för skogens ekologi och skötsel,Department of Forest Ecology and Management,University of Eastern Finland (author)
  • Elberling, BoUniversity of Copenhagen (author)
  • Voigt, CarolinaUniversity Of Quebec In Montreal,University of Eastern Finland (author)
  • Biasi, ChristinaUniversity of Eastern Finland (author)
  • Sonnentag, OliverUniversity Of Quebec In Montreal(Swepub:lu)ol3828so (author)
  • Parmentier, Frans Jan W.Lund University,Lunds universitet,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,University of Oslo(Swepub:lu)nate-fpm (author)
  • Ueyama, Masahito (author)
  • Celis, GerardoFlorida Museum Natural History (author)
  • St.Louis, Vincent L.University of Alberta (author)
  • Emmerton, Craig A.University of Alberta (author)
  • Peichl, MatthiasSveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Institutionen för skogens ekologi och skötsel,Department of Forest Ecology and Management(Swepub:slu)48058 (author)
  • Chi, JinshuSveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Institutionen för skogens ekologi och skötsel,Department of Forest Ecology and Management (author)
  • Järveoja, JärviSwedish University of Agricultural Sciences (author)
  • Nilsson, MatsSveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Institutionen för skogens ekologi och skötsel,Department of Forest Ecology and Management(Swepub:slu)47620 (author)
  • Oberbauer, Steven F.Florida International University (author)
  • Torn, Margaret S.Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (author)
  • Park, Sang JongKorea Polar Research Institute (author)
  • Dolman, HanVrije Universiteit Amsterdam (author)
  • Mammarella, IvanUniversity of Helsinki (author)
  • Chae, NamyiKorea University (author)
  • Poyatos, RafaelCentre for Ecological Research and Forestry (CERAF),Autonomous University of Barcelona (author)
  • López-Blanco, EfrénGreenland Institute of Natural Resources,Aarhus University (author)
  • Christensen, Torben RøjleAarhus University(Swepub:lu)ekol-tch (author)
  • Kwon, Min JungLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,Korea Polar Research Institute (author)
  • Sachs, TorstenGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (author)
  • Holl, DavidUniversity of Hamburg (author)
  • Luoto, MiskaUniversity of Helsinki (author)
  • University of HelsinkiFinnish Meteorological Institute (creator_code:org_t)
  • Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet

Related titles

  • In:Global Change Biology: Wiley27:17, s. 4040-40591354-10131365-2486

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