id:"swepub:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:6336d06a-c181-430b-ac48-0d8e6dd2f601"
Sökning: id:"swepub:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:6336d06a-c181-430b-ac48-0d8e6dd2f601" > Stochastic model fo...
- 1 av 1
- Föregående post
- Nästa post
- Till träfflistan
- Solari, Hernán G.University of Buenos Aires (författare)
Stochastic model for COVID-19 in slums: interaction between biology and public policies
- Artikel/kapitelEngelska2021
Förlag, utgivningsår, omfång ...
- 2021
- 15 s.
Nummerbeteckningar
- LIBRIS-ID:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:6336d06a-c181-430b-ac48-0d8e6dd2f601
- https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/6336d06a-c181-430b-ac48-0d8e6dd2f601URI
- https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268821001746DOI
Kompletterande språkuppgifter
- Språk:engelska
- Sammanfattning på:engelska
Ingår i deldatabas
- SwePubSwePub
Klassifikation
Anmärkningar
- We present a mathematical model for the simulation of the development of an outbreak of COVID-19 in a slum area under different interventions. Instead of representing interventions as modulations of the parameters of a free running epidemic we introduce a model structure that accounts for the actions but does not assume the results. The disease is modelled in terms of the progression of viremia reported in scientific works. The emergence of symptoms in the model reflects the statistics of a nation-wide highly detailed database consisting of more than 62000 cases (about a half of the confirmed by RT-PCR tests) with recorded symptoms in Argentina. The stochastic model displays several of the characteristics of COVID-19 such as a high variability in the evolution of the outbreaks, including long periods in which they run undetected, spontaneous extinction followed by a late outbreak and unimodal as well as bimodal progressions of daily counts of cases (second waves without ad-hoc hypothesis). We show how the relation between undetected cases (including the 'asymptomatic' cases) and detected cases changes as a function of the public policies, the efficiency of the implementation and the timing with respect to the development of the outbreak. We show also that the relation between detected cases and total cases strongly depends on the implemented policies and that detected cases cannot be regarded as a measure of the outbreak, being the dependency between total cases and detected cases in general not monotonic as a function of the efficiency in the intervention method. According to the model, it is possible to control an outbreak with interventions based on the detection of symptoms only in the case when the presence of just one symptom prompts isolation and the detection efficiency reaches about 80% of the cases. Requesting two symptoms to trigger intervention can be enough to fail in the goals.
Ämnesord och genrebeteckningar
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP Hälsovetenskap Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi hsv//swe
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES Health Sciences Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology hsv//eng
- NATURVETENSKAP Matematik Annan matematik hsv//swe
- NATURAL SCIENCES Mathematics Other Mathematics hsv//eng
- stochastic compartmental model
- viremic levels
- surveillance protocols
- Markov Jump process
Biuppslag (personer, institutioner, konferenser, titlar ...)
- Natiello, MarioLund University,Lunds universitet,Dynamiska system,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Matematik LTH,Matematikcentrum,Institutioner vid LTH,Lunds Tekniska Högskola,Dynamical systems,Lund University Research Groups,Mathematics (Faculty of Engineering),Centre for Mathematical Sciences,Departments at LTH,Faculty of Engineering, LTH(Swepub:lu)math-mna (författare)
- University of Buenos AiresDynamiska system (creator_code:org_t)
Sammanhörande titlar
- Ingår i:Epidemiology and Infection1490950-2688
Internetlänk
Hitta via bibliotek
- Epidemiology and Infection (Sök värdpublikationen i LIBRIS)
Till lärosätets databas
- 1 av 1
- Föregående post
- Nästa post
- Till träfflistan
Hitta mer i SwePub
- Av författaren/redakt...
- Solari, Hernán G ...
- Natiello, Mario
- Om ämnet
-
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLS ...
- och Hälsovetenskap
- och Folkhälsovetensk ...
-
- NATURVETENSKAP
- NATURVETENSKAP
- och Matematik
- och Annan matematik
- Artiklar i publikationen
- Epidemiology and ...
- Av lärosätet
- Lunds universitet
Sök utanför SwePub
- Sök vidare i:
- Google Book Search
- Google Scholar
Kungliga biblioteket hanterar dina personuppgifter i enlighet med EU:s dataskyddsförordning (2018), GDPR. Läs mer om hur det funkar här.
Så här hanterar KB dina uppgifter vid användning av denna tjänst.
- Copyright © LIBRIS - Nationella bibliotekssystem
- LIBRIS.kb.se
