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Agricultural breadb...
Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change
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- Franke, James A (författare)
- University of Chicago
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- Müller, Christoph (författare)
- Leibniz Association,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Minoli, Sara (författare)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Elliott, Joshua (författare)
- University of Chicago
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- Folberth, Christian (författare)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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- Gardner, Charles (författare)
- University of Chicago
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- Hank, Tobias (författare)
- Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich
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- Izaurralde, R Cesar (författare)
- University of Maryland
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- Jägermeyr, Jonas (författare)
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,Columbia University,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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- Jones, Curtis D (författare)
- University of Maryland
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- Liu, Wenfeng (författare)
- South China Agricultural University
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- Olin, Stefan (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
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- Pugh, Thomas A M (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,University of Birmingham,Birmingham Institute of Forest Research
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- Ruane, Alex C (författare)
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
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- Stephens, Haynes (författare)
- University of Chicago
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- Zabel, Florian (författare)
- Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich
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- Moyer, Elisabeth J (författare)
- University of Chicago
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2021-10-07
- 2022
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 28:1, s. 167-181
- Relaterad länk:
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http://dx.doi.org/10...
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https://lup.lub.lu.s...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global "breadbaskets". A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climaterelated losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end-of-century warming using 7 process-based models simulating 5 major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.
Ämnesord
- LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER -- Lantbruksvetenskap, skogsbruk och fiske -- Jordbruksvetenskap (hsv//swe)
- AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES -- Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries -- Agricultural Science (hsv//eng)
- LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER -- Annan lantbruksvetenskap -- Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
- AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES -- Other Agricultural Sciences -- Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use (hsv//eng)
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- Av författaren/redakt...
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Franke, James A
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Müller, Christop ...
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Minoli, Sara
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Elliott, Joshua
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Folberth, Christ ...
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Gardner, Charles
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visa fler...
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Hank, Tobias
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Izaurralde, R Ce ...
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Jägermeyr, Jonas
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Jones, Curtis D
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Liu, Wenfeng
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Olin, Stefan
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Pugh, Thomas A M
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Ruane, Alex C
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Stephens, Haynes
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Zabel, Florian
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Moyer, Elisabeth ...
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visa färre...
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och Lantbruksvetensk ...
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och Jordbruksvetensk ...
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LANTBRUKSVETENSK ...
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Global Change Bi ...
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Lunds universitet