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  • Kennedy, Beatrice,1982-Uppsala universitet,Uppsala University,Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden,Uppsala Univ, Sweden,Molekylär epidemiologi,Science for Life Laboratory, SciLifeLab (author)

App-based COVID-19 syndromic surveillance and prediction of hospital admissions in COVID Symptom Study Sweden

  • Article/chapterEnglish2022

Publisher, publication year, extent ...

  • 2022-04-21
  • Springer Science and Business Media LLC,2022
  • 12 s.

Numbers

  • LIBRIS-ID:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:8b05a33e-677d-4e91-a11e-91fb6fa60509
  • https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/8b05a33e-677d-4e91-a11e-91fb6fa60509URI
  • https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29608-7DOI
  • https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-98801URI
  • https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-194461URI
  • https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-184834URI
  • https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-473382URI
  • http://kipublications.ki.se/Default.aspx?queryparsed=id:149366280URI
  • https://gup.ub.gu.se/publication/319046URI

Supplementary language notes

  • Language:English
  • Summary in:English

Part of subdatabase

Classification

  • Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype
  • Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype

Notes

  • Funding Agencies|Swedish Research CouncilSwedish Research CouncilEuropean Commission [2018-05973]
  • The app-based COVID Symptom Study was launched in Sweden in April 2020 to contribute to real-time COVID-19 surveillance. We enrolled 143,531 study participants (≥18 years) who contributed 10.6 million daily symptom reports between April 29, 2020 and February 10, 2021. Here, we include data from 19,161 self-reported PCR tests to create a symptom-based model to estimate the individual probability of symptomatic COVID-19, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.83) in an external dataset. These individual probabilities are employed to estimate daily regional COVID-19 prevalence, which are in turn used together with current hospital data to predict next week COVID-19 hospital admissions. We show that this hospital prediction model demonstrates a lower median absolute percentage error (MdAPE: 25.9%) across the five most populated regions in Sweden during the first pandemic wave than a model based on case notifications (MdAPE: 30.3%). During the second wave, the error rates are similar. When we apply the same model to an English dataset, not including local COVID-19 test data, we observe MdAPEs of 22.3% and 19.0% during the first and second pandemic waves, respectively, highlighting the transferability of the prediction model.

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  • Fitipaldi, HugoLund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Lund,Medicinska fakulteten,Genetisk och molekylär epidemiologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund,Faculty of Medicine,Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology,Lund University Research Groups,Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Lund University, Lund, Sweden(Swepub:lu)hu3745fi (author)
  • Hammar, UlfUppsala universitet,Uppsala University,Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden,Uppsala Univ, Sweden,Molekylär epidemiologi,Science for Life Laboratory, SciLifeLab(Swepub:uu)ulfha881 (author)
  • Maziarz, MarlenaLund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Malmö,Medicinska fakulteten,Diabetiska komplikationer,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö,Faculty of Medicine,Diabetic Complications,Lund University Research Groups,Diabetic Complications Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Lund, Sweden(Swepub:lu)ma4353ma (author)
  • Tsereteli, NeliLund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Lund,Medicinska fakulteten,Genetisk och molekylär epidemiologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund,Faculty of Medicine,Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology,Lund University Research Groups,Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Lund University, Lund, Sweden(Swepub:lu)ne6733ts (author)
  • Oskolkov, NikolayLund University,Lunds universitet,Biologiska institutionen,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Bioinformatik,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Biology,Faculty of Science,Bioinformatics,Lund University Research Groups,National Bioinformatics Infrastructure Sweden (NBIS), SciLifeLab,Science for Life Laboratory (SciLifeLab),Department of Biology, National Bioinformatics Infrastructure Sweden, Science for Life Laboratory, Lund University, Lund, Sweden,Lund Univ, Sweden(Swepub:lu)med-nao (author)
  • Varotsis, GeorgiosUppsala universitet,Uppsala University,Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden,Uppsala Univ, Sweden,Molekylär epidemiologi,Science for Life Laboratory, SciLifeLab(Swepub:uu)geova785 (author)
  • Franks, Camilla ALund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Malmö,Medicinska fakulteten,Diabetiska komplikationer,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö,Faculty of Medicine,Diabetic Complications,Lund University Research Groups,Diabetic Complications Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Lund, Sweden(Swepub:lu)ca5681fr (author)
  • Nguyen, Diem,PhDUppsala universitet,Uppsala University,Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden,Uppsala Univ, Sweden,Science for Life Laboratory, SciLifeLab,Molekylär epidemiologi(Swepub:uu)dieng296 (author)
  • Spiliopoulos, LamprosLund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Malmö,Medicinska fakulteten,Diabetiska komplikationer,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö,Faculty of Medicine,Diabetic Complications,Lund University Research Groups,Diabetic Complications Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Lund, Sweden; Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden,Lund Univ, Sweden; Skane Univ Hosp, Sweden(Swepub:lu)la3078sp (author)
  • Adami, Hans-OlovKarolinska Institutet,Karolinska Institute,Clinical Effectiveness Group, Institute of Health and Society, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, MA, Boston, United States,Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health,Univ Oslo, Norway; Karolinska Inst, Sweden; Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, MA USA (author)
  • Björk, JonasLund University,Lunds universitet,Avdelningen för arbets- och miljömedicin,Institutionen för laboratoriemedicin,Medicinska fakulteten,Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Lund University,Department of Laboratory Medicine,Faculty of Medicine,Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Clinical Studies Sweden, Forum South, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden,Lund Univ, Sweden; Skane Univ Hosp, Sweden(Swepub:lu)ymed-jbj (author)
  • Engblom, StefanUppsala universitet,Uppsala University,Division of Scientific Computing, Department of Information Technology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden,Uppsala Univ, Sweden,Avdelningen för beräkningsvetenskap,Tillämpad beräkningsvetenskap(Swepub:uu)steng957 (author)
  • Fall, Katja,1971-Örebro universitet,Örebro University,Karolinska Institute,Institutionen för medicinska vetenskaper,Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden; Integrative Epidemiology, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden,Orebro Univ, Sweden; Karolinska Inst, Sweden(Swepub:oru)kafl (author)
  • Grimby-Ekman, Anna,1967Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för samhällsmedicin och folkhälsa,Institute of Medicine, School of Public Health and Community Medicine(Swepub:gu)xekman (author)
  • Litton, Jan-EricKarolinska Institute,Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden,Karolinska Inst, Sweden (author)
  • Martinell, Mats,1971-Uppsala universitet,Allmänmedicin och preventivmedicin(Swepub:uu)matma554 (author)
  • Oudin, AnnaUmeå universitet,Umeå University,Lund University,Lunds universitet,Avdelningen för arbets- och miljömedicin,Institutionen för laboratoriemedicin,Medicinska fakulteten,Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Lund University,Department of Laboratory Medicine,Faculty of Medicine,Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden,Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa,Lund Univ, Sweden; Umea Univ, Sweden(Swepub:umu)anou0004 (author)
  • Sjöström, TorbjörnNovus Group International AB, Stockholm, Sweden,Novus Grp Int AB, Sweden (author)
  • Timpka, ToomasLinköpings universitet,Linköping University,Department of Health, Medicine and Caring Sciences, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden,Clinical and Translational Epidemiology Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, MA, Boston, United States,Avdelningen för samhälle och hälsa,Medicinska fakulteten,Region Östergötland, Enheten för folkhälsa,Massachusetts Gen Hosp, MA 02114 USA; Harvard Med Sch, MA 02115 USA(Swepub:liu)tooti02 (author)
  • Sudre, Carole HMRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing at UCL, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Medical Image Computing, University College London, London, United Kingdom; School of Biomedical Engineering and Imaging Sciences, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,King's College London,UCL, England; UCL, England; Kings Coll London, England (author)
  • Graham, Mark SSchool of Biomedical Engineering and Imaging Sciences, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,ZOE Limited, London, UK,ZOE Limited, 164 Westminster Bridge Road, London, United Kingdom,Zoe Global Limited,Kings Coll London, England,ZOE Ltd, England (author)
  • du Cadet, Julien LavigneZoe Global Limited,ZOE Limited, London, UK,ZOE Limited, 164 Westminster Bridge Road, London, United Kingdom,ZOE Ltd, England (author)
  • Chan, Andrew TMassachusetts General Hospital,Harvard Medical School (author)
  • Davies, RichardZoe Global Limited,ZOE Limited, London, UK,ZOE Limited, 164 Westminster Bridge Road, London, United Kingdom,ZOE Ltd, England (author)
  • Ganesh, SajaysuryaZoe Global Limited,ZOE Limited, London, UK,ZOE Limited, 164 Westminster Bridge Road, London, United Kingdom,ZOE Ltd, England (author)
  • May, AnnaZoe Global Limited,ZOE Limited, London, UK,ZOE Limited, 164 Westminster Bridge Road, London, United Kingdom,ZOE Ltd, England (author)
  • Ourselin, SébastienSchool of Biomedical Engineering and Imaging Sciences, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,Kings Coll London, England (author)
  • Pujol, Joan CapdevilaZoe Global Limited,ZOE Limited, London, UK,ZOE Limited, 164 Westminster Bridge Road, London, United Kingdom,ZOE Ltd, England (author)
  • Selvachandran, SomeshZoe Global Limited (author)
  • Wolf, JonathanZoe Global Limited,ZOE Limited, London, UK,ZOE Limited, 164 Westminster Bridge Road, London, United Kingdom,ZOE Ltd, England (author)
  • Spector, Tim DDepartment of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,Kings Coll London, England (author)
  • Steves, Claire JInstitute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, King's College London,Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King’s College London, London, United Kingdom,Kings Coll London, England (author)
  • Gomez, Maria FLund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Malmö,Medicinska fakulteten,Diabetiska komplikationer,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö,Faculty of Medicine,Diabetic Complications,Lund University Research Groups,Diabetic Complications Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Lund, Sweden(Swepub:lu)mphy-mgo (author)
  • Franks, Paul WLund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Lund,Medicinska fakulteten,Genetisk och molekylär epidemiologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund,Faculty of Medicine,Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology,Lund University Research Groups,Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University Diabetes Centre, Lund University, Lund, Sweden(Swepub:lu)med-plf (author)
  • Fall, ToveUppsala universitet,Uppsala University,Department of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden,Uppsala Univ, Sweden,Science for Life Laboratory, SciLifeLab,Molekylär epidemiologi,Tove Fall(Swepub:uu)tovfa878 (author)
  • Uppsala UniversityDepartment of Medical Sciences, Molecular Epidemiology and Science for Life Laboratory, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden (creator_code:org_t)

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  • In:Nature Communications: Springer Science and Business Media LLC13:12041-1723

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