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Prediction of Signi...
Prediction of Significant Prostate Cancer Diagnosed 20 to 30 Years Later With a Single Measure of Prostate-Specific Antigen at or Before Age 50
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- Lilja, Hans (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Klinisk kemi, Malmö,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Clinical Chemistry, Malmö,Lund University Research Groups
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Cronin, Angel M. (author)
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- Dahlin, Anders (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Internmedicin - epidemiologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Internal Medicine - Epidemiology,Lund University Research Groups
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- Manjer, Jonas (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Kirurgi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Surgery,Lund University Research Groups
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- Nilsson, Peter (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Internmedicin - epidemiologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Internal Medicine - Epidemiology,Lund University Research Groups
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Eastham, James A. (author)
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- Bjartell, Anders (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Urologisk cancerforskning, Malmö,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Urological cancer, Malmö,Lund University Research Groups
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Scardino, Peter T. (author)
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- Ulmert, David (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Urologisk cancerforskning, Malmö,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Klinisk kemi, Malmö,Urological cancer, Malmö,Lund University Research Groups,Clinical Chemistry, Malmö
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Vickers, Andrew J. (author)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2010-10-19
- 2011
- English.
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In: Cancer. - : Wiley. - 1097-0142 .- 0008-543X. ; 117:6, s. 1210-1219
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Abstract
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- BACKGROUND: We previously reported that a single prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measured at ages 44-50 was highly predictive of subsequent prostate cancer diagnosis in an unscreened population. Here we report an additional 7 years of follow-up. This provides replication using an independent data set and allows estimates of the association between early PSA and subsequent advanced cancer (clinical stage >= T3 or metastases at diagnosis). METHODS: Blood was collected from 21,277 men in a Swedish city (74% participation rate) during 1974-1986 at ages 33-50. Through 2006, prostate cancer was diagnosed in 1408 participants; we measured PSA in archived plasma for 1312 of these cases (93%) and for 3728 controls. RESULTS: At a median follow-up of 23 years, baseline PSA was strongly associated with subsequent prostate cancer (area under the curve, 0.72; 95% Cl, 0.70-0.74; for advanced cancer, 0.75; 95% Cl, 0.72-0.78). Associations between PSA and prostate cancer were virtually identical for the initial and replication data sets, with 81% of advanced cases (95% Cl, 77%-86%) found in men with PSA above the median (0.63 ng/mL at ages 44-50). CONCLUSIONS: A single PSA at or before age 50 predicts advanced prostate cancer diagnosed up to 30 years later. Use of early PSA to stratify risk would allow a large group of low-risk men to be screened less often but increase frequency of testing on a more limited number of high-risk men. This is likely to improve the ratio of benefit to harm for screening. Cancer 2011;117:1210-9. (C) 2010 American Cancer Society
Subject headings
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Cancer och onkologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Cancer and Oncology (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- prostate cancer
- prostate-specific antigen
- human kallikrein 2
- risk
- factors
- case-control study
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- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
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Cancer
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- By the author/editor
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Lilja, Hans
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Cronin, Angel M.
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Dahlin, Anders
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Manjer, Jonas
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Nilsson, Peter
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Eastham, James A ...
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show more...
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Bjartell, Anders
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Scardino, Peter ...
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Ulmert, David
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Vickers, Andrew ...
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- About the subject
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- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES
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MEDICAL AND HEAL ...
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and Clinical Medicin ...
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and Cancer and Oncol ...
- Articles in the publication
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Cancer
- By the university
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Lund University