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Decomposing the spa...
Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains
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- Bradter, Ute (author)
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
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- Johnston, Alison (author)
- University of St Andrews,Cornell Lab of Ornithology
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- Hochachka, Wesley M. (author)
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology
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- Soultan, Alaaeldin (author)
- Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Institutionen för ekologi,Department of Ecology
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- Brommer, Jon E. (author)
- University of Turku
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- Gaget, Elie (author)
- University of Turku,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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- Kålås, John Atle (author)
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
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- Lehikoinen, Aleksi (author)
- Finnish Museum of Natural History
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- Lindström, Åke (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Biodiversitet,Biologiska institutionen,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Biodiversitet och bevarandevetenskap,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,CAnMove - Centrum för forskning om djurs spridning och flyttning,Biodiversity,Department of Biology,Faculty of Science,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Biodiversity and Conservation Science,Lund University Research Groups,CAnMove - Centre for Animal Movement Research
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- Piirainen, Sirke (author)
- Finnish Museum of Natural History,University of Lapland
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- Pavón-Jordán, Diego (author)
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
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- Pärt, Tomas (author)
- Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Institutionen för ekologi,Department of Ecology
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- Øien, Ingar Jostein (author)
- BirdLife Norway
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- Sandercock, Brett K. (author)
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
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(creator_code:org_t)
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- 2022-08-14
- 2022
- English.
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In: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 28:21, s. 6209-6227
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under “space-for-time substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996–2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Biologi -- Ekologi (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Biological Sciences -- Ecology (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- anticipatory forecasts
- climate decomposition
- dynamic forecasts
- forecast horizon
- space-for-time substitution
- spatiotemporal forecasts
- spatiotemporal pattern
- species distribution models
- static forecasts
Publication and Content Type
- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
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- By the author/editor
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Bradter, Ute
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Johnston, Alison
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Hochachka, Wesle ...
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Soultan, Alaaeld ...
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Brommer, Jon E.
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Gaget, Elie
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Kålås, John Atle
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Lehikoinen, Alek ...
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Lindström, Åke
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Piirainen, Sirke
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Pavón-Jordán, Di ...
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Pärt, Tomas
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Øien, Ingar Jost ...
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Sandercock, Bret ...
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- About the subject
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Climate Research
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Biological Scien ...
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and Ecology
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Environmental Sc ...
- Articles in the publication
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Global Change Bi ...
- By the university
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Lund University
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Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences