Search: id:"swepub:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:9fbc1c3c-1e9a-48ca-b042-d59d24d2b622" >
Palaeoclimate const...
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Fischer, HubertusUniversity of Bern
(author)
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond
- Article/chapterEnglish2018
Publisher, publication year, extent ...
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2018-06-25
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Springer Science and Business Media LLC,2018
Numbers
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LIBRIS-ID:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:9fbc1c3c-1e9a-48ca-b042-d59d24d2b622
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https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/9fbc1c3c-1e9a-48ca-b042-d59d24d2b622URI
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0DOI
Supplementary language notes
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Language:English
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Summary in:English
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Classification
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Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype
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Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
Notes
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Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.
Subject headings and genre
Added entries (persons, corporate bodies, meetings, titles ...)
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Meissner, Katrin J.University of New South Wales
(author)
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Mix, Alan C.Oregon State University
(author)
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Abram, Nerilie J.Australian National University
(author)
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Austermann, JacquelineUniversity of Cambridge
(author)
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Brovkin, VictorMax Planck Institute for Meteorology
(author)
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Capron, EmilieUniversity of Copenhagen,British Antarctic Survey
(author)
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Colombaroli, DanieleRoyal Holloway University of London,University of Bern,Ghent University
(author)
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Daniau, Anne LaureUniversity of Bordeaux
(author)
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Dyez, Kelsey A.Columbia University
(author)
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Felis, ThomasUniversity of Bremen
(author)
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Finkelstein, Sarah A.University of Toronto
(author)
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Jaccard, Samuel L.University of Bern
(author)
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McClymont, Erin L.Durham University
(author)
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Rovere, AlessioLeibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Ecology,University of Bremen
(author)
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Sutter, JohannesAlfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam
(author)
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Wolff, Eric W.University of Cambridge
(author)
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Affolter, StéphaneUniversity of Bern
(author)
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Bakker, PepijnUniversity of Bremen
(author)
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Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan AntonioUniversity of Geneva
(author)
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Barbante, CarloUniversity of Venice,CNR Institute for the Dynamics of Environmental Processes (CNR-IDPA)
(author)
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Caley, ThibautUniversity of Bordeaux
(author)
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Carlson, Anders E.Oregon State University
(author)
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Churakova (Sidorova), OlgaUniversity of Geneva,Siberian Federal University
(author)
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Cortese, GiuseppeGNS Science
(author)
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Cumming, Brian F.Queen's University at Kingston
(author)
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Davis, Basil A.S.University of Lausanne
(author)
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de Vernal, AnneUniversity Of Quebec In Montreal
(author)
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Emile-Geay, JulienUniversity of Southern California
(author)
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Fritz, Sherilyn C.University of Nebraska - Lincoln(Swepub:lu)sh4732fr
(author)
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Gierz, PaulAlfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam
(author)
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Gottschalk, JuliaUniversity of Bern
(author)
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Holloway, Max D.British Antarctic Survey
(author)
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Joos, FortunatUniversity of Bern
(author)
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Kucera, MichalUniversity of Bremen
(author)
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Loutre, Marie FrancePAGES (Past Global Changes)
(author)
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Lunt, Daniel J.University of Bristol
(author)
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Marcisz, KatarzynaUniversity of Bern,Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań
(author)
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Marlon, Jennifer R.Yale University
(author)
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Martinez, PhilippeUniversity of Bordeaux
(author)
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Masson-Delmotte, ValerieUniversity of Paris-Saclay
(author)
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Nehrbass-Ahles, ChristophUniversity of Bern
(author)
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Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.National Center for Atmospheric Research
(author)
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Raible, Christoph C.University of Bern
(author)
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Risebrobakken, BjørgBjerknes Centre for Climate Research
(author)
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Sánchez Goñi, María F.University of Bordeaux,École Pratiques des Hautes Ètudes, Paris
(author)
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Arrigo, Jennifer SaleemU.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)
(author)
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Sarnthein, MichaelUniversity of Kiel
(author)
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Sjolte, JesperLund University,Lunds universitet,Kvartärgeologi,Geologiska institutionen,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Quaternary Sciences,Department of Geology,Faculty of Science(Swepub:lu)geol-jes
(author)
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Stocker, Thomas F.University of Bern
(author)
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Yan, QingInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
(author)
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Yu, ZichengLehigh University,Northeast Normal University
(author)
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Ziegler, MartinETH Zürich,Utrecht University
(author)
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Zhou, LipingPeking University
(author)
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University of BernUniversity of New South Wales
(creator_code:org_t)
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In:Nature Geoscience: Springer Science and Business Media LLC11:7, s. 474-4851752-08941752-0908
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Fischer, Hubertu ...
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Meissner, Katrin ...
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Mix, Alan C.
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Abram, Nerilie J ...
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Austermann, Jacq ...
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Brovkin, Victor
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Capron, Emilie
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Colombaroli, Dan ...
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Daniau, Anne Lau ...
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Dyez, Kelsey A.
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Felis, Thomas
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Finkelstein, Sar ...
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Jaccard, Samuel ...
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McClymont, Erin ...
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Rovere, Alessio
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Sutter, Johannes
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Wolff, Eric W.
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Affolter, Stépha ...
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Bakker, Pepijn
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Ballesteros-Cáno ...
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Barbante, Carlo
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Caley, Thibaut
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Carlson, Anders ...
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Churakova (Sidor ...
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Cortese, Giusepp ...
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Cumming, Brian F ...
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Davis, Basil A.S ...
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de Vernal, Anne
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Emile-Geay, Juli ...
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Fritz, Sherilyn ...
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Gierz, Paul
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Gottschalk, Juli ...
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Holloway, Max D.
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Joos, Fortunat
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Kucera, Michal
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Loutre, Marie Fr ...
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Lunt, Daniel J.
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Marcisz, Katarzy ...
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Marlon, Jennifer ...
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Martinez, Philip ...
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Masson-Delmotte, ...
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Nehrbass-Ahles, ...
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Otto-Bliesner, B ...
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Raible, Christop ...
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Risebrobakken, B ...
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Sánchez Goñi, Ma ...
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Arrigo, Jennifer ...
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Sarnthein, Micha ...
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Sjolte, Jesper
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Stocker, Thomas ...
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Yan, Qing
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Yu, Zicheng
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Ziegler, Martin
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Zhou, Liping
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- About the subject
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Climate Research
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Geology
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Nature Geoscienc ...
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Lund University