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Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

Kurganskiy, Alexander (author)
University of Worcester
Creer, Simon (author)
Bangor University
de Vere, Natasha (author)
National Botanic Garden of Wales
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Griffith, Gareth W (author)
Aberystwyth University
Osborne, Nicholas J (author)
University of Exeter
Wheeler, Benedict W (author)
University of Exeter
McInnes, Rachel N (author)
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change
Clewlow, Yolanda (author)
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change
Barber, Adam (author)
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change
Brennan, Georgina L (author)
Lund University,Lunds universitet,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Akvatisk ekologi,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Aquatic Ecology,Lund University Research Groups,Bangor University
Hanlon, Helen M (author)
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change
Hegarty, Matthew (author)
Potter, Caitlin (author)
Aberystwyth University
Rowney, Francis (author)
University of Exeter
Adams-Groom, Beverley (author)
University of Worcester
Petch, Geoff M (author)
University of Worcester
Pashley, Catherine H (author)
University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust
Satchwell, Jack (author)
University of Leicester
de Weger, Letty A (author)
Leiden University Medical Centre
Rasmussen, Karen (author)
Astma-Allergi Danmark
Oliver, Gilles (author)
Réseau National de Surveillance Aérobiologique (R.N.S.A.)
Sindt, Charlotte (author)
Réseau National de Surveillance Aérobiologique (R.N.S.A.)
Bruffaerts, Nicolas (author)
Sciensano
Skjøth, Carsten A (author)
University of Worcester
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 (creator_code:org_t)
 
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 2021
2021
English 11 s.
In: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 7:13
Related links:
http://dx.doi.org/10... (free)
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https://www.science....
https://lup.lub.lu.s...
https://doi.org/10.1...
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  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract Subject headings
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  • Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season's severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.

Subject headings

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)

Publication and Content Type

art (subject category)
ref (subject category)

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