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Storylines : an alt...
Storylines : an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change
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- Shepherd, Theodore G. (author)
- University of Reading
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- Boyd, Emily (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,LUCSUS,Samhällsvetenskapliga institutioner och centrumbildningar,Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten,LUCSUS (Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies),Departments of Administrative, Economic and Social Sciences,Faculty of Social Sciences
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- Calel, Raphael A. (author)
- Georgetown University,London School of Economics and Political Science
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- Chapman, Sandra C. (author)
- University of Warwick,Boston University
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- Dessai, Suraje (author)
- University of Leeds
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- Dima-West, Ioana M. (author)
- Willis Re
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- Fowler, Hayley J. (author)
- University of Newcastle upon Tyne
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- James, Rachel (author)
- University of Cape Town,University of Oxford
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- Maraun, Douglas (author)
- Karl-Franzens-University of Graz
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- Martius, Olivia (author)
- University of Bern
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- Senior, Catherine A. (author)
- Met Office
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- Sobel, Adam H. (author)
- Columbia University
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- Stainforth, David A. (author)
- London School of Economics and Political Science,University of Warwick
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- Tett, Simon F.B. (author)
- University of Edinburgh
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- Trenberth, Kevin E. (author)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research
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- van den Hurk, Bart J.J.M. (author)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam,Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
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- Watkins, Nicholas W. (author)
- Boston University,Open University,University of Warwick,London School of Economics and Political Science
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- Wilby, Robert L. (author)
- Loughborough University
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- Zenghelis, Dimitri A. (author)
- London School of Economics and Political Science
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2018-11-10
- 2018
- English.
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In: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 151:3-4, s. 555-571
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a ‘storyline’ approach. We define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. No a priori probability of the storyline is assessed; emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved, and the plausibility of those factors. We introduce a typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making by allowing one to work backward from a particular vulnerability or decision point, combining climate change information with other relevant factors to address compound risk and develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing a physical basis for partitioning uncertainty, thereby allowing the use of more credible regional models in a conditioned manner and (iv) exploring the boundaries of plausibility, thereby guarding against false precision and surprise. Storylines also offer a powerful way of linking physical with human aspects of climate change.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
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- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
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- By the author/editor
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Shepherd, Theodo ...
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Boyd, Emily
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Calel, Raphael A ...
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Chapman, Sandra ...
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Dessai, Suraje
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Dima-West, Ioana ...
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show more...
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Fowler, Hayley J ...
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James, Rachel
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Maraun, Douglas
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Martius, Olivia
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Senior, Catherin ...
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Sobel, Adam H.
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Stainforth, Davi ...
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Tett, Simon F.B.
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Trenberth, Kevin ...
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van den Hurk, Ba ...
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Watkins, Nichola ...
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Wilby, Robert L.
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Zenghelis, Dimit ...
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- About the subject
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Environmental Sc ...
- Articles in the publication
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Climatic Change
- By the university
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Lund University