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Individualized pred...
Individualized prediction of lung-function decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
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- Zafari, Zafar (författare)
- University of British Columbia
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- Sin, Don D. (författare)
- St. Paul’s Hospital,University of British Columbia
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- Postma, Dirkje S. (författare)
- University of Groningen
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- Löfdahl, Claes Göran (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Lungmedicin, allergologi och palliativ medicin,Sektion II,Institutionen för kliniska vetenskaper, Lund,Medicinska fakulteten,Respiratory Medicine, Allergology, and Palliative Medicine,Section II,Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund,Faculty of Medicine
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- Vonk, Judith (författare)
- University of Groningen
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- Bryan, Stirling (författare)
- University of British Columbia
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- Lam, Stephen (författare)
- University of British Columbia
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- Tammemagi, C. Martin (författare)
- Brock University
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- Khakban, Rahman (författare)
- University of British Columbia
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- Man, S. F Paul (författare)
- St. Paul’s Hospital,University of British Columbia
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- Tashkin, Donald (författare)
- University of California, Los Angeles
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- Wise, Robert A. (författare)
- Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine
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- Connett, John E. (författare)
- University of Minnesota
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- McManus, Bruce (författare)
- PROOF Centre for Excellence,St. Paul’s Hospital,University of British Columbia
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- Ng, Raymond (författare)
- PROOF Centre for Excellence
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- Hollander, Zsuszanna (författare)
- PROOF Centre for Excellence,St. Paul’s Hospital,University of British Columbia
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- Sadatsafavi, Mohsen (författare)
- University of British Columbia
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University of British Columbia St Paul’s Hospital (creator_code:org_t)
- 2016-08-02
- 2016
- Engelska 7 s.
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Ingår i: CMAJ. - : CMA Joule Inc.. - 0820-3946. ; 188:14, s. 1004-1010
- Relaterad länk:
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http://dx.doi.org/10...
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https://www.cmaj.ca/...
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https://lup.lub.lu.s...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
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- Background: The rate of lung-function decline in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) varies substantially among individuals. We sought to develop and validate an individualized prediction model for forced expiratory volume at 1 second (FEV1) in current smokers with mild-to-moderate COPD. Methods: Using data from a large long-term clinical trial (the Lung Health Study), we derived mixed-effects regression models to predict future FEV1 values over 11 years according to clinical traits. We modelled heterogeneity by allowing regression coefficients to vary across individuals. Two independent cohorts with COPD were used for validating the equations. Results: We used data from 5594 patients (mean age 48.4 yr, 63% men, mean baseline FEV1 2.75 L) to create the individualized prediction equations. There was significant between-individual variability in the rate of FEV1 decline, with the interval for the annual rate of decline that contained 95% of individuals being -124 to -15 mL/yr for smokers and -83 to 15 mL/yr for sustained quitters. Clinical variables in the final model explained 88% of variation around follow-up FEV1. The C statistic for predicting severity grades was 0.90. Prediction equations performed robustly in the 2 external data sets. Interpretation: A substantial part of individual variation in FEV1 decline can be explained by easily measured clinical variables. The model developed in this work can be used for prediction of future lung health in patients with mild-to-moderate COPD.
Ämnesord
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Lungmedicin och allergi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Respiratory Medicine and Allergy (hsv//eng)
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Zafari, Zafar
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Sin, Don D.
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Postma, Dirkje S ...
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Löfdahl, Claes G ...
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Vonk, Judith
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Bryan, Stirling
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visa fler...
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Lam, Stephen
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Tammemagi, C. Ma ...
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Khakban, Rahman
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Man, S. F Paul
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Tashkin, Donald
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Wise, Robert A.
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Connett, John E.
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McManus, Bruce
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Ng, Raymond
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Hollander, Zsusz ...
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Sadatsafavi, Moh ...
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