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Assessment and simu...
Assessment and simulation of global terrestrial latent heat flux by synthesis of CMIP5 climate models and surface eddy covariance observations
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- Yao, Yunjun (author)
- Beijing Normal University
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- Liang, Shunlin (author)
- Beijing Normal University
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- Li, Xianglan (author)
- Beijing Normal University
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- Liu, Shaomin (author)
- Beijing Normal University
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- Chen, Jiquan (author)
- Michigan State University
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- Zhang, Xiaotong (author)
- Beijing Normal University
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- Jia, Kun (author)
- Beijing Normal University
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- Jiang, Bo (author)
- Beijing Normal University
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- Xie, Xianhong (author)
- Beijing Normal University
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- Munier, Simon (author)
- LEGOS Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales
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- Liu, Meng (author)
- Beijing Normal University
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- Yu, Jian (author)
- Beijing Normal University
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- Lindroth, Anders (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science
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- Varlagin, Andrej (author)
- P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
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- Raschi, Antonio (author)
- CNR Istituto per le Tecnologie Applicate ai Beni Culturali (CNR-ITABC)
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- Noormets, Asko (author)
- North Carolina State University
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- Pio, Casimiro (author)
- University of Aveiro
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- Wohlfahrt, Georg (author)
- EURAC Research
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- Sun, Ge (author)
- United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
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- Domec, Jean Christophe (author)
- National School of Agricultural Engineering, Bordeaux,Duke University
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- Montagnani, Leonardo (author)
- Free University of Bozen-Bolzano
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- Lund, Magnus (author)
- Aarhus University
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- Eddy, Moors (author)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
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- Blanken, Peter D. (author)
- University of Colorado
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- Grünwald, Thomas (author)
- Dresden University of Technology
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- Wolf, Sebastian (author)
- ETH Zürich
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- Magliulo, Vincenzo (author)
- CNR Institute for Agricultural and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR-ISAFOM)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- Elsevier BV, 2016
- 2016
- English 17 s.
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In: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0168-1923. ; 223, s. 151-167
- Related links:
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http://dx.doi.org/10...
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http://manuscript.el...
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https://lup.lub.lu.s...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- The latent heat flux (LE) between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere is a major driver of the global hydrological cycle. In this study, we evaluated LE simulations by 45 general circulation models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by a comparison with eddy covariance (EC) observations from 240 globally distributed sites from 2000 to 2009. In addition, we improved global terrestrial LE estimates for different land cover types by synthesis of seven best CMIP5 models and EC observations based on a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. The comparison results showed substantial differences in monthly LE among all GCMs. The model CESM1-CAM5 has the best performance with the highest predictive skill and a Taylor skill score (S) from 0.51-0.75 for different land cover types. The cross-validation results illustrate that the BMA method has improved the accuracy of the CMIP5 GCM's LE simulation with a decrease in the averaged root-mean-square error (RMSE) by more than 3 W/m2 when compared to the simple model averaging (SMA) method and individual GCMs. We found an increasing trend in the BMA-based global terrestrial LE (slope of 0.018 W/m2 yr-1, p <0.05) during the period 1970-2005. This variation may be attributed directly to the inter-annual variations in air temperature (Ta), surface incident solar radiation (Rs) and precipitation (P). However, our study highlights a large difference from previous studies in a continuous increasing trend after 1998, which may be caused by the combined effects of the variations of Rs, Ta, and P on LE for different models on these time scales. This study provides corrected-modeling evidence for an accelerated global water cycle with climate change.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Multidisciplinär geovetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Geosciences, Multidisciplinary (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- BMA
- CMIP5
- GCMs
- Global terrestrial LE
- Taylor skill score
Publication and Content Type
- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
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- By the author/editor
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Yao, Yunjun
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Liang, Shunlin
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Li, Xianglan
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Liu, Shaomin
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Chen, Jiquan
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Zhang, Xiaotong
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show more...
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Jia, Kun
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Jiang, Bo
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Xie, Xianhong
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Munier, Simon
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Liu, Meng
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Yu, Jian
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Lindroth, Anders
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Varlagin, Andrej
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Raschi, Antonio
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Noormets, Asko
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Pio, Casimiro
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Wohlfahrt, Georg
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Sun, Ge
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Domec, Jean Chri ...
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Montagnani, Leon ...
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Lund, Magnus
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Eddy, Moors
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Blanken, Peter D ...
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Grünwald, Thomas
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Wolf, Sebastian
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Magliulo, Vincen ...
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- About the subject
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Climate Research
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Environmental Sc ...
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- NATURAL SCIENCES
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NATURAL SCIENCES
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and Earth and Relate ...
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and Geosciences Mult ...
- Articles in the publication
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Agricultural and ...
- By the university
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Lund University