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Risk prediction for...
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Singleton, Rosie K.School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
(author)
Risk prediction for renal cell Carcinoma : Results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) prospective cohort study
- Article/chapterEnglish2021
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LIBRIS-ID:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:f7f3c57b-82e0-4f47-98fa-269a14905f64
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https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/f7f3c57b-82e0-4f47-98fa-269a14905f64URI
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https://doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-20-1438DOI
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https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-181725URI
Supplementary language notes
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Language:English
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Summary in:English
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Subject category:art swepub-publicationtype
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Subject category:ref swepub-contenttype
Notes
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Background: Early detection of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) has the potential to improve disease outcomes. No screening program for sporadic RCC is in place. Given relatively low incidence, screening would need to focus on people at high risk of clinically meaningful disease so as to limit overdiagnosis and screen-detected false positives. Methods: Among 192,172 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort (including 588 incident RCC cases), we evaluated a published RCC risk prediction model (including age, sex, BMI, and smoking status) in terms of discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (observed probability as a function of predicted probability). We used a flexible parametric survival model to develop an expanded model including age, sex, BMI, and smoking status, with the addition of self-reported history of hypertension and measured blood pressure. Results: The previously published model yielded well-calibrated probabilities and good discrimination (C-statistic [95% CI]: 0.699 [0.679–0.721]). Our model had slightly improved discrimination (0.714 [0.694–0.735], bootstrap optimism-corrected C-statistic: 0.709). Despite this good performance, predicted risk was low for the vast majority of participants, with 70% of participants having 10-year risk less than 0.0025. Conclusions: Although the models performed well for the prediction of incident RCC, they are currently insufficiently powerful to identify individuals at substantial risk of RCC in a general population. Impact: Despite the promising performance of the EPIC RCC risk prediction model, further development of the model, possibly including biomarkers of risk, is required to enable risk stratification of RCC.
Subject headings and genre
Added entries (persons, corporate bodies, meetings, titles ...)
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Heath, Alicia K.School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
(author)
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Clasen, Joanna L.School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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Scelo, GhislaineCancer Epidemiology Unit, University of Turin, Turin, Italy
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Johansson, MattiasInternational Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization,International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Le Calvez-Kelm, FlorenceInternational Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization,International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Weiderpass, ElisabeteInternational Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization,International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
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Liedberg, FredrikLund University,Lunds universitet,Urologi - blåscancer, Malmö,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,LUCC: Lunds universitets cancercentrum,Övriga starka forskningsmiljöer,Urology - urothelial cancer, Malmö,Lund University Research Groups,LUCC: Lund University Cancer Centre,Other Strong Research Environments,Institution of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Malmo, Sweden(Swepub:lu)urok-fli
(author)
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Ljungberg, Börje,Professor,1949-Umeå universitet,Umeå University,Urologi och andrologi(Swepub:umu)bolj0001
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Harbs, JustinUmeå universitet,Umeå University,Diagnostisk radiologi(Swepub:umu)juha0033
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Olsen, AnjaDanish Cancer Society Research Center, Copenhagen, Denmark; Department of Public Health, University of Århus, Århus, Denmark,Aarhus University
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Tjønneland, AnneDanish Cancer Society Research Center, Copenhagen, Denmark; Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark,Danish Cancer Society
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Dahm, Christina C.Department of Public Health, Aarhus University, Denmark
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Kaaks, RudolfDivision of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
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Fortner, Renee T.Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
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Panico, SalvatoreDepartment of Clinical and Surgical Medicine, Federico II University, Naples, Italy
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Tagliabue, GiovannaLombardy Cancer Registry Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori di Milano, Milan, Italy
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Masala, GiovannaCancer Risk Factors and Life-Style Epidemiology Unit, Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network–ISPRO, Florence, Italy
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Tumino, RosarioCancer Registry and Histopathology Department, Provincial Health Authority (ASP 7), Ragusa, Italy
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Ricceri, FulvioAzienda Sanitaria Locale Torino 3,Department of Clinical and Biological Sciences, University of Turin, Orbassano (TO), Italy; Unit of Epidemiology Regional Health Service ASL TO3, Grugliasco (TO), Italy
(author)
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Gram, Inger T.UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø,Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
(author)
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Santiuste, CarmenDepartment of Epidemiology, Murcia Regional Health Council, IMIB-Arrixaca, Murcia, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Publica (CIBERESP), Spain,CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP)
(author)
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Bonet, CatalinaUnit of Nutrition, Environment, and Cancer, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Barcelona, Spain
(author)
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Rodriguez-Barranco, MiguelAndalusian School Of Public Health (EASP),CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP),Escuela Andaluza de Salud Publica (EASP), Granada, Madrid, Spain; Instituto de Investigacion Biosanitaria ibs.GRANADA, Granada, Spain; Centro de Investigacion Biomedicaen Red de Epidemiología y Salud Publica (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
(author)
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Schulze, Mattias B.Department of Molecular Epidemiology, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke (DifE), Potsdam, Germany; Institute of Nutrition Science, University of Potsdam, Nuthetal, Germany,University of Potsdam
(author)
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Bergmann, Manuela M.Department of Epidemiology, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbrucke (DifE), Potsdam, Germany
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Travis, Ruth C.Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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Tzoulaki, IoannaSchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; University of Ioannina Medical School, Ioannina, Greece,University of Ioannina
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Riboli, ElioSchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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Muller, David C.School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United KingdomCancer Epidemiology Unit, University of Turin, Turin, Italy
(creator_code:org_t)
Related titles
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In:Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention: AACR30:3, s. 507-5121055-99651538-7755
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Singleton, Rosie ...
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Heath, Alicia K.
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Clasen, Joanna L ...
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Scelo, Ghislaine
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Johansson, Matti ...
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Le Calvez-Kelm, ...
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Weiderpass, Elis ...
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Liedberg, Fredri ...
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Ljungberg, Börje ...
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Harbs, Justin
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Olsen, Anja
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Tjønneland, Anne
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Dahm, Christina ...
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Kaaks, Rudolf
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Fortner, Renee T ...
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Panico, Salvator ...
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Tagliabue, Giova ...
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Masala, Giovanna
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Tumino, Rosario
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Ricceri, Fulvio
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Gram, Inger T.
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Santiuste, Carme ...
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Bonet, Catalina
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Rodriguez-Barran ...
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Schulze, Mattias ...
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Bergmann, Manuel ...
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Travis, Ruth C.
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Tzoulaki, Ioanna
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Riboli, Elio
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Muller, David C.
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Lund University
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Umeå University