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- Elimian, KOKarolinska Institutet (author)
Assessing the capacity of symptom scores to predict COVID-19 positivity in Nigeria: a national derivation and validation cohort study
- Article/chapterEnglish2021
Publisher, publication year, extent ...
- 2021-09-03
- BMJ,2021
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- LIBRIS-ID:oai:prod.swepub.kib.ki.se:148591670
- http://kipublications.ki.se/Default.aspx?queryparsed=id:148591670URI
- https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049699DOI
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- Language:English
- Summary in:English
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- This study aimed to develop and validate a symptom prediction tool for COVID-19 test positivity in Nigeria.DesignPredictive modelling study.SettingAll Nigeria States and the Federal Capital Territory.ParticipantsA cohort of 43 221 individuals within the national COVID-19 surveillance dataset from 27 February to 27 August 2020. Complete dataset was randomly split into two equal halves: derivation and validation datasets. Using the derivation dataset (n=21 477), backward multivariable logistic regression approach was used to identify symptoms positively associated with COVID-19 positivity (by real-time PCR) in children (≤17 years), adults (18–64 years) and elderly (≥65 years) patients separately.Outcome measuresWeighted statistical and clinical scores based on beta regression coefficients and clinicians’ judgements, respectively. Using the validation dataset (n=21 744), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values were used to assess the predictive capacity of individual symptoms, unweighted score and the two weighted scores.ResultsOverall, 27.6% of children (4415/15 988), 34.6% of adults (9154/26 441) and 40.0% of elderly (317/792) that had been tested were positive for COVID-19. Best individual symptom predictor of COVID-19 positivity was loss of smell in children (AUROC 0.56, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.56), either fever or cough in adults (AUROC 0.57, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.58) and difficulty in breathing in the elderly (AUROC 0.53, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.58) patients. In children, adults and the elderly patients, all scoring approaches showed similar predictive performance.ConclusionsThe predictive capacity of various symptom scores for COVID-19 positivity was poor overall. However, the findings could serve as an advocacy tool for more investments in resources for capacity strengthening of molecular testing for COVID-19 in Nigeria.
Added entries (persons, corporate bodies, meetings, titles ...)
- Aderinola, O (author)
- Gibson, J (author)
- Myles, P (author)
- Ochu, CL (author)
- King, CKarolinska Institutet (author)
- Okwor, T (author)
- Gaudenzi, GKarolinska Institutet (author)
- Olayinka, A (author)
- Zaiyad, HG (author)
- Ohonsi, C (author)
- Ebhodaghe, B (author)
- Dan-Nwafor, C (author)
- Nwachukwu, W (author)
- Abdus-Salam, IA (author)
- Akande, OW (author)
- Falodun, O (author)
- Arinze, C (author)
- Ezeokafor, C (author)
- Jafiya, A (author)
- Ojimba, A (author)
- Aremu, JT (author)
- Joseph, E (author)
- Bowale, A (author)
- Mutiu, B (author)
- Saka, B (author)
- Jinadu, A (author)
- Hamza, K (author)
- Ibeh, C (author)
- Bello, S (author)
- Asuzu, M (author)
- Mba, N (author)
- Oladejo, J (author)
- Ilori, E (author)
- Alfven, TKarolinska Institutet (author)
- Igumbor, E (author)
- Ihekweazu, C (author)
- Karolinska Institutet (creator_code:org_t)
Related titles
- In:BMJ open: BMJ11:9, s. e049699-2044-6055
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- Okwor, T
- Gaudenzi, G
- Olayinka, A
- Zaiyad, HG
- Ohonsi, C
- Ebhodaghe, B
- Dan-Nwafor, C
- Nwachukwu, W
- Abdus-Salam, IA
- Akande, OW
- Falodun, O
- Arinze, C
- Ezeokafor, C
- Jafiya, A
- Ojimba, A
- Aremu, JT
- Joseph, E
- Bowale, A
- Mutiu, B
- Saka, B
- Jinadu, A
- Hamza, K
- Ibeh, C
- Bello, S
- Asuzu, M
- Mba, N
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