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Future air quality ...
Future air quality in Europe: a multi-model assessment of projected exposure to ozone
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- Colette, A. (författare)
- Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)
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- Granier, C. (författare)
- Max Planck Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften e.V. (MPG),Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science (MPG),National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,University of Colorado at Boulder
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- Hodnebrog, O. (författare)
- Cicero Senter for klimaforskning,Universitetet i Oslo,University of Oslo
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Jakobs, H. (författare)
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- Maurizi, A. (författare)
- Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna
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- Nyiri, A. (författare)
- Meteorologisk institutt,Norwegian Meteorological Institute
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- Rao, S. (författare)
- Internationales Institut fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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- Amann, M. (författare)
- Internationales Institut fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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- Bessagnet, B. (författare)
- Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)
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D'Angiola, A. (författare)
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- Gauss, M. (författare)
- Meteorologisk institutt,Norwegian Meteorological Institute
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- Heyes, C. (författare)
- Internationales Institut fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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- Klimont, Z. (författare)
- Internationales Institut fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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- Meleux, F. (författare)
- Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)
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Memmesheimer, M. (författare)
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Mieville, A. (författare)
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- Rouil, L. (författare)
- Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)
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- Russo, F. (författare)
- Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna
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- Schucht, S. (författare)
- Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)
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- Simpson, David, 1961 (författare)
- Chalmers tekniska högskola,Chalmers University of Technology
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- Stordal, F. (författare)
- Universitetet i Oslo,University of Oslo
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- Tampieri, F. (författare)
- ENEA Centro Ricerche Bologna
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- Vrac, M. (författare)
- Universite de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines
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Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS) Max Planck Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften eV. (MPG) (creator_code:org_t)
- 2012-11-13
- 2012
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 12:21, s. 10613-10630
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https://doi.org/10.5...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- In order to explore future air quality in Europe at the 2030 horizon, two emission scenarios developed in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment including varying assumptions on climate and energy access policies are investigated with an ensemble of six regional and global atmospheric chemistry transport models. A specific focus is given in the paper to the assessment of uncertainties and robustness of the projected changes in air quality. The present work relies on an ensemble of chemistry transport models giving insight into the model spread. Both regional and global scale models were involved, so that the ensemble benefits from medium-resolution approaches as well as global models that capture long-range transport. For each scenario a whole decade is modelled in order to gain statistical confidence in the results. A statistical downscaling approach is used to correct the distribution of the modelled projection. Last, the modelling experiment is related to a hind-cast study published earlier, where the performances of all participating models were extensively documented. The analysis is presented in an exposure-based framework in order to discuss policy relevant changes. According to the emission projections, ozone precursors such as NOx will drop down to 30% to 50% of their current levels, depending on the scenario. As a result, annual mean O-3 will slightly increase in NOx saturated areas but the overall O-3 burden will decrease substantially. Exposure to detrimental O-3 levels for health (SOMO35) will be reduced down to 45% to 70% of their current levels. And the fraction of stations where present-day exceedences of daily maximum O-3 is higher than 120 mu g m(-3) more than 25 days per year will drop from 43% down to 2 to 8 %. We conclude that air pollution mitigation measures (present in both scenarios) are the main factors leading to the improvement, but an additional cobenefit of at least 40% (depending on the indicator) is brought about by the climate policy.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- biomass burning emissions
- impact
- simulations
- ensemble
- variability
- tropospheric ozone
- greenhouse-gas emissions
- transport model
- precipitation
- climate-change
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Till lärosätets databas
- Av författaren/redakt...
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Colette, A.
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Granier, C.
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Hodnebrog, O.
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Jakobs, H.
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Maurizi, A.
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Nyiri, A.
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Rao, S.
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Amann, M.
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Bessagnet, B.
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D'Angiola, A.
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Gauss, M.
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Heyes, C.
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Klimont, Z.
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Meleux, F.
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Memmesheimer, M.
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Mieville, A.
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Rouil, L.
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Russo, F.
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Schucht, S.
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Simpson, David, ...
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Stordal, F.
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Tampieri, F.
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Vrac, M.
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